A New Axis Emerges: Meloni and Merz Forge Conservative Alliance, Diminishing Macron's Role in EU Leadership

This analysis is part of an ongoing series examining the rising influence of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on the European and global stage.

ROME — Under the Roman sun, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz presented a study in contrasts. Yet, their newly signed partnership pact suggests a convergence of purpose that is poised to reshape the European Union's balance of power, with France's Emmanuel Macron increasingly on the sidelines.

The agreement, centered on enhanced cooperation between Berlin and Rome on defense, migration control, and industrial trade policy, is being interpreted in European capitals as evidence of a "new center of gravity" within the bloc. This budding alliance arrives at a pivotal moment, with Macron a lame-duck president facing a resurgent far-right at home and Germany seeking reliable partners for a continent confronting geopolitical upheaval.

"The Franco-German engine has been sputtering for years," noted an EU diplomat speaking on condition of anonymity. "Berlin needs a stable, predictable partner. With France unstable and Macron exiting soon, Meloni's Italy—once the EU's problem child—now looks like the safer bet."

Meloni, once dismissed by critics as a eurosceptic populist, has meticulously rebranded herself as a pragmatic, transatlantic conservative. Her government's fiscal discipline and political longevity—she is Italy's longest-serving premier since Silvio Berlusconi—have won respect in Berlin. Conversely, France, with its political paralysis and soaring debt, is increasingly viewed through the lens of old Italian stereotypes.

"I am not interested in replacing anyone," Meloni stated alongside Merz, deftly sidestepping questions about supplanting Macron. "I am interested in the great nations of Europe having a dialogue on the great challenges that we face."

The partnership is underpinned by substantial economic ties. Bilateral trade exceeded €153 billion in 2024, with cross-investments topping €100 billion. On policy, the duo speaks with one voice on curbing migration, demanding faster deportations and backing offshore processing deals. They share a vision of a more assertive EU trade policy, recently supporting a deal with India over French objections, and a defense industry capable of facing modern threats.

Perhaps most significantly, both leaders advocate for a "multi-speed Europe" to break policy deadlocks, emphasizing legislative restraint from Brussels and a pragmatic approach to green targets that protects industry.

While Paris insists the Franco-German relationship remains a "beacon," the dynamics have undeniably shifted. "Meloni and Merz will be the ones to watch for a while," the EU diplomat concluded. "It doesn't replace the old engine, but that engine hasn't worked well since Brexit. She could make Italy the new Britain in the EU."

Voices from the Ground

Dr. Elena Rossi, Political Scientist at Bocconi University, Milan: "This is a logical, interest-driven alignment. Meloni has delivered stability and fiscal credibility, which Germany values above all. It's less about ideology and more about finding a partner who can actually implement agreed policies, something Paris has struggled with recently."

Klaus Berger, Financial Analyst, Frankfurt: "The markets are viewing this positively. A stable axis between the EU's largest economy and a reforming Italy reduces uncertainty. It signals a shift towards more fiscal conservatism and trade openness, which is welcome news for investors wary of French protectionism."

Sophie Lefevre, Commentator for 'Le Monde', Paris (Sharply Critical): "This is a dangerous and short-sighted gambit. Merz is cozying up to a leader with post-fascist roots to appease his own far-right flank. They are dismantling hard-won social and environmental standards under the guise of 'pragmatism.' Macron's weakness is a tragedy, but replacing the EU's founding motor with an axis of conservative illiberalism is not the solution."

Marco Conti, Small Business Owner, Naples: "Finally, Italy is not coming to meetings with a begging bowl. We are being treated as an equal. If this partnership means less bureaucracy from Brussels and more support for our exporters, then it's a welcome change. Let's see if the words in Rome translate to jobs here."

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