A Shift in Momentum: IMF Forecasts Africa to Outpace Asia in Economic Growth This Year
For the first time, economic growth in Africa is poised to surpass that of Asia this year, according to the latest projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The shift, while notable, comes with a stark caveat from analysts: sustained progress hinges on overcoming massive investment shortfalls.
The IMF's World Economic Outlook forecasts average growth in sub-Saharan Africa to reach 4.6% in 2024, compared to 4.1% across Asia. Several African nations, including Ivory Coast and Senegal, are on track for double-digit expansion, fueled by infrastructure spending and a rebound in key commodity sectors.
Demographics are a core driver of Africa's rising trajectory. The continent boasts the world's youngest and fastest-growing population, set to constitute a quarter of humanity by 2050. "This demographic dividend presents an unparalleled opportunity for dynamic growth and market expansion," noted a senior IMF economist.
Yet, experts warn the potential is far from guaranteed. Rémy Rioux, Chief Executive Officer of the French Development Agency (AFD), emphasized in a recent interview that realizing this promise requires "colossal investments in education and vocational training, alongside the creation of hundreds of millions of formal jobs."
African policymakers point to a persistent hurdle: the perceived high risk of investing on the continent, which they argue is often mispriced by global markets. This perception gap, they say, stifles the foreign direct investment and domestic capital mobilization needed to build infrastructure, boost productivity, and fully harness the youth bulge.
Voices from the Ground:
"This forecast is a long-awaited validation of our region's resilience and potential. It should signal to global investors that Africa is not just a story of challenges, but of tangible returns and transformation." — Chiamaka Okafor, Economic Analyst, Lagos-based Think Tank.
"Surpassing Asia's growth rate is a statistical blip, not a structural victory. Until we see concrete action on job creation for our millions of unemployed youth and a drastic reduction in poverty indices, this is just another headline that means little for the average African struggling to get by." — David Mbeki, Activist and Founder, 'Equitable Growth Africa' Coalition.
"The key will be channeling this growth into diversified, value-added economies. We must move beyond raw material exports and build robust manufacturing and tech sectors to ensure this isn't a fleeting trend." — Professor Elena Silva, Development Economics, University of Geneva.