AfD Wins Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, but Germany's Political Firewall Holds

BERLIN — The far-right Alternative for Germany won a state election in the country's northeast, but its candidate for state premier said Monday that victory is unlikely to translate into power in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.

Leif-Erik Holm told broadcaster NDR that he believed the AfD could govern. “However, at the moment it does not look as though that will happen,” he said.

The obstacle is Germany's long-standing political firewall. Every other party in the state has ruled out cooperating with the AfD, a stance that mainstream parties have maintained for years as a way to keep the far right out of government.

Holm said a three-party coalition between the center-left Social Democrats, The Left and the Greens currently appeared likely. “That is certainly not a good direction for our state,” he said.

He repeated the AfD's claim to govern, arguing that voters had given the party a clear mandate. “That is why we expect the other parties to be willing to talk to us,” Holm said.

Holm's own path to the state parliament ended in disappointment. He failed to win a direct mandate in Schwerin, losing to state Premier Manuela Schwesig of the SPD. He will not enter the state legislature.

If the AfD does not enter government as expected, Holm said he would remain a member of the German parliament, the Bundestag.

The AfD won Sunday's election with 38.2% of the vote, more than doubling its result from five years ago. The SPD came second with 35.5%, while The Left won 6.5% and the Greens 5.7% — numbers that give the three parties a potential majority in the state parliament.

The result is a significant moment for the AfD, which has steadily expanded its support in eastern Germany while remaining isolated by other parties at the national and state levels. Even a decisive first-place finish may not be enough to break that isolation.

For Chancellor Friedrich Merz's conservative Christian Democrats, the election was a sharp setback. The party won just 4.9% of the vote, falling below the 5% threshold and failing to enter a German state parliament for the first time.

The outcome in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is likely to fuel debate over how Germany's mainstream parties should respond to the AfD's growing electoral strength. While the firewall has kept the party out of state and federal governments so far, each election that leaves the AfD with a large mandate but no coalition partner adds pressure to that strategy — and leaves voters who backed the party without a direct route to power.