American Express Posts Solid Growth but Falls Short of Revenue Forecasts in Q4 2025
NEW YORK – American Express (NYSE: AXP) delivered a quarter of robust growth that nonetheless left some investors wanting more. The financial services giant reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $17.57 billion, a 10.6% increase from the same period last year. However, this figure fell short of analyst projections. On the bottom line, the company's GAAP earnings per share of $3.53 aligned precisely with Wall Street's consensus estimate.
The iconic card issuer, synonymous with its green charge cards and premium travel benefits, has navigated a complex economic landscape marked by shifting consumer spending patterns and competitive pressures in digital payments. While the revenue miss captured headlines, the underlying performance reflects the company's continued resilience in its core cardmember spending and network volumes.
"The headline miss obscures a fundamentally healthy business," said market analyst David Chen of Sterling Financial Insights. "A double-digit top-line growth in this environment is commendable. The focus should be on their sustained five-year annualized revenue growth of over 16%, which speaks to durable customer relationships and brand strength."
Others were less forgiving. "This is a pattern of underperformance against expectations," argued retail investor and frequent financial commentator, Marcus Thorne, in a sharply worded post on social platform FinTwit. "Meeting EPS is the bare minimum. The revenue shortfall, coupled with a stock price drop, signals AmEx is losing its edge in a ferociously competitive payments war. Where's the disruptive innovation?"
Sarah Jenkins, a portfolio manager at Horizon Wealth, offered a more measured perspective. "For long-term holders, a single quarter's revenue variance is noise. The critical metrics are cardmember retention, credit quality, and the growth of its high-spending commercial clientele. The quarter's results in those areas appear stable, which supports the investment thesis."
Following the earnings release, American Express shares traded down approximately 2.6% to $349.20. The reaction highlights the market's heightened sensitivity to guidance and forecasts, even amidst solid absolute growth. The company's performance over the past two years, with an annualized revenue growth of 9.8%, while strong, has moderated from its exceptional five-year trend, reflecting a normalization from post-pandemic surges and broader economic cooling.
The payments sector is undergoing rapid transformation, with new technologies and competitors vying for transaction volume. American Express's ability to maintain its premium positioning and deepen customer engagement through its renowned rewards ecosystem will be crucial for its next phase of growth, as investors weigh its prospects against evolving market dynamics.