Amgen's Q4 Preview: Wall Street's Mixed Signals on the Biotech Giant
Thousand Oaks-based biotech leader Amgen (AMGN) enters its fourth-quarter earnings report under the microscope of a Wall Street grappling with conflicting signals. The company, a pioneer in recombinant DNA technology with a market cap north of $184 billion, has seen its shares climb over 20% in the past year, outpacing the broader S&P 500. However, recent performance has lagged behind the healthcare sector, setting the stage for a pivotal update.
Strategic moves have bolstered the company's profile. Following its acquisition of Horizon Therapeutics, Fitch Ratings upgraded Amgen's credit outlook, citing an improved financial structure. The recent purchase of U.K.-based Dark Blue Therapeutics aims to strengthen its oncology pipeline. This activity comes on the heels of a Q3 earnings beat, extending Amgen's streak of surpassing analyst estimates.
Yet, the road ahead presents challenges. For the upcoming Q4 report, analysts project a year-over-year dip in EPS to $4.75. While full-year 2025 forecasts remain positive, attention is shifting to 2026, which some see as a potential holding pattern. The sentiment is reflected in the analyst consensus, which currently stands at a "Moderate Buy"—a mix of optimism and caution. Notably, Bernstein recently downgraded the stock to "Market Perform," flagging 2026 as a "waiting year" pending critical Phase 3 data for its obesity drug candidate MariTide and increased competition for its cholesterol drug Repatha.
Price targets underscore the divergence: the mean target of $336.29 suggests minimal near-term movement, while the street-high target of $425 implies significant upside potential.
Market Voices
Dr. Evelyn Reed, Portfolio Manager at Horizon BioHealth Fund: "Amgen's disciplined capital allocation and pipeline expansion through acquisitions like Dark Blue are classic signs of a mature innovator shoring up its future. The near-term EPS volatility is noise; we're invested for the long-term biologics play."
Michael Torres, Independent Biotech Analyst: "The 'Moderate Buy' consensus is Wall Street's way of saying it's stuck. The stock is caught between a solid legacy business and a pipeline that's years from moving the needle. Until MariTide data materializes, it's hard to see a major catalyst."
Sarah Chen, Retail Investor Advocate & Newsletter Editor: "This is getting ridiculous. Analysts give 14 'Strong Buys' but the average price target is basically flat? It screams of conflicted interests. They're talking up the stock while quietly penciling in a 'waiting year.' Investors deserve clarity, not this fog of war."
David Forsythe, Chief Strategist at Steadfast Capital: "The outperformance against the S&P is telling. In a shaky market, Amgen's scale and diversified portfolio offer a defensive growth characteristic that's undervalued. The credit upgrade is a more powerful signal than daily analyst chatter."
Disclosure: The author of the original source article had no positions in the securities mentioned. This analysis is for informational purposes only and was adapted from source material.