Andrew Graham’s Top Trade Right Now — and His Signal to Buy More
Nvidia has finally caught a bid after another blowout quarter, but Jackson Square Capital’s Andrew Graham says the long-running worry about AI spending is not dead. The managing partner says the stock is a buy even after a stretch of strong results that did little for the share price. “The multiple is compressed down to 21.5 times, as low as it’s been in a decade,” he said. “Should you own it? Yes. You should definitely own the stock.” The questions around circular financing, he added, are probably not going away, but that does not change the longer-term setup. Nvidia, in his view, is laying the foundation for the full stack of AI.
When Graham last appeared on TheStreet in early July, he favored Broadcom over Nvidia. That call has worked so far, and he still is not backing away from Broadcom or its smaller peer Marvell, which reported earnings after this interview. “Both I think have a great opportunity. I think it’s coming later though,” he said. As customers build out inference clusters, they are likely to need multiple custom ASICs for different tasks, and Broadcom and Marvell are well positioned as partners. He expects that story to become more of a 2028-29 theme, noting that Broadcom has been a little weaker than he would like but that the business is booming.
Graham also argued that the August bounce in tech was just another momentum unwind in a cycle where similar moves have happened repeatedly. “We had three weeks of calm, and then all of a sudden we got into August and you saw momentum pairs down 33%,” he said. He is not treating that as the end of the bull market. Instead, he thinks the real pain trade is still too much cash on the sidelines. With September approaching, seasonal weakness and midterm election fears may be on everyone’s mind, but Graham says the earnings backdrop overrides the usual jitters. “We’re in the middle of a boom in earnings growth,” he said. He also expects September’s conference season to give management teams a chance to guide estimates higher, not lower, which is not the typical pattern.
For investors trying to time entries, Graham says his firm uses technical screens even though it prefers not to admit it. “They’re not perfect yet. They’re not there yet,” he said, adding that clients do not like losing money. Marvell, he said, looked good heading into earnings because its roughly $20 billion Google deal is transformational. On the software side, he is watching a group he calls beneficiaries of the “inference economy”: Microsoft, Twilio, Shopify and Cloudflare. He would buy Twilio, owns Cloudflare, and calls Cloudflare the crown jewel of the group, though he said Microsoft is the pick if forced to choose right now.
Across tech, Graham sees the most upside in networking. He points to data center interconnect, or DCI, where the number of dedicated ports in the United States could climb from about one million today to 20 or 30 million over the next four years. That would be a major opportunity for Cisco and Arista, especially as scale-up architectures shift from Nvidia’s NVLink toward Ethernet-based products. “Those are probably our two favorite names right now. Period. Full stop,” he said. Even after their big runs — both are up more than 50% — he says it is not too late to get in.
Graham also raised his S&P 500 target from 7,840 to 8,500, driven by stronger earnings revisions. He estimates the index is on track for roughly 32% earnings growth this year, and even if the pace slows to 12% or 13% next year, that is not a bear market. “You don’t want to pick a fight with that,” he said.
Outside tech, healthcare is his top pick. Eli Lilly remains his biggest position in the space, and he has added healthcare services names including UnitedHealth and CVS to his lower-beta dividend portfolio. In consumer discretionary, he is intrigued after August flash PMI data pointed to strength. His favorite way to play it remains the off-price names: TJX, Costco and Walmart. TJX recently pulled back on an execution issue, but he called that a fixable problem. He is avoiding utilities, finding few compelling ideas in materials, and says his firm is still roughly 55% tech.
In the rapid-fire portion of the conversation, Graham picked Arista over Cisco, said investors should buy this market rather than wait, and said he would stay invested. He chose Nvidia over Broadcom, Google over Amazon, Cloudflare over Snowflake, CrowdStrike, and gold over bitcoin. When asked for one stock to buy today, he said Marvell, citing the Google deal and his expectation that investors will reward the company. He said he would avoid hard disk drive names, calling them rich after a big run.
On the next stage of AI leadership, Graham sees open-source models accelerating adoption and helping drive costs lower. He agrees with Jensen Huang’s framing that this is the golden age of startups. The biggest risk to the rally, he says, is widening credit spreads, especially with heavy debt issuance expected from hyperscalers and companies like Broadcom. And for retail investors, his advice is simple: add positions when they are oversold, keep losers small, and let winners run.