Arizona Drivers Brace for Gas Price Surge as Middle East Conflict Disrupts Global Oil Flow
Arizona's steadily climbing gas prices face new upward pressure as military strikes between the U.S., Israel, and Iran ripple through the world's most critical oil-producing region, analysts warn. While seasonal factors were already nudging costs higher, the widening conflict introduces significant volatility that could hit drivers' wallets.
"We're in a very fragile moment for global energy supply," said Julian Paredes, spokesperson for AAA Arizona. "The market was adjusting to normal spring demand. Now, it's reacting to headlines from the Persian Gulf." According to AAA data, the state average sat at $3.32 per gallon on March 2, a typical pre-spring break increase attributed to refinery maintenance and the switch to more expensive summer-blend fuel.
The campaign of strikes, which began on February 28, has triggered a series of retaliatory attacks targeting energy infrastructure. A March 2 Iranian drone strike on Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery caused a minor fire and prompted precautionary shutdowns, the Saudi Press Agency reported. Separately, QatarEnergy, the world's top LNG producer, temporarily halted production following attacks on its facilities, according to Al Jazeera.
The most immediate choke point, however, is the Strait of Hormuz. Through this narrow waterway passes roughly one-fifth of the world's daily oil supply. Following the initial strikes, Iran restricted traffic, causing a logjam of tankers. Footage from March 1 showed a Palau-flagged vessel ablaze after being struck, and reports indicate over 150 ships have chosen to anchor rather than risk the passage.
"Any sustained disruption in the Strait doesn't just affect prices in Dubai or Rotterdam—it's felt in Phoenix and Tucson," explained Dr. Anya Sharma, an energy economist at the Grand Canyon Institute. "The price of crude oil is a global benchmark. When supply fears drive that price up, every refinery paying more for its feedstock passes that cost to consumers."
Market data reflects this anxiety. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, briefly surged to over $82 per barrel on March 2, its highest point in more than a year. Paredes noted crude prices have risen approximately 6% since the conflict began.
While the full impact remains uncertain, the prospect of a prolonged conflict suggests a challenging outlook for fuel costs. During a March 2 White House ceremony, former President Donald Trump projected the hostilities could last four to five weeks, "or far longer."
"It's not a guaranteed spike, but a protracted conflict is rarely good news for gas prices," Paredes concluded.
What Arizonans Are Saying
Michael Torres, rideshare driver, Phoenix: "This is a nightmare. My profit margin disappears with every 10-cent jump. I'm already working longer hours just to cover my own gas. Where does it end?"
Dr. Anya Sharma, energy economist, Grand Canyon Institute: "The market is pricing in a significant risk premium. Beyond the immediate supply shocks, investor sentiment is now factoring in the potential for a broader regional war, which keeps upward pressure on prices."
Sarah Chen, small business owner, Flagstaff: "It's infuriating. Our supply chain costs are up, and now fuel for deliveries is spiking. These geopolitical games thousands of miles away are strangling Main Street businesses. Our leaders seem utterly disconnected from this pain."
David Miller, retired engineer, Sun City: "We've seen this cycle before. Prices jump on fear, then often settle. But this time, with direct attacks on refineries and shipping, the fundamentals are more concerning. I'm adjusting my budget for higher costs through the summer."
Rey Covarrubias Jr. covers business and breaking news for The Arizona Republic and azcentral.com.
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Arizona gas prices threaten to rise as Iran war hits oil