Arizona Price Report Sparks Debate: Economist Says Democratic Analysis Lacks Inflation Context

PHOENIX – A Congressional Democratic report detailing increased living costs for Arizonans from 2024 to 2025 has drawn criticism for lacking economic context, according to an analysis by a state-focused think tank. The debate underscores the politically charged battle over how to interpret economic data ahead of the election cycle.

Last week, Democrats on the congressional Joint Economic Committee released findings indicating the average overall cost of goods and services nationwide rose by $1,625 over the past year. For Arizona residents, the increase was pegged at $1,569, with housing and transportation costs cited as significant drivers.

In response, Arizona's Democratic congressional delegation—including Sens. Ruben Gallego and Mark Kelly—issued statements sharply criticizing the economic policies they blame for the climb. "People pay more and get less," Sen. Gallego asserted. Rep. Greg Stanton pointed to tariffs as a key culprit, saying, "Arizonans deserve better."

However, Zachary Milne, a senior economist at the Common Sense Institute Arizona, told The Center Square that the report misses a fundamental point: a baseline level of annual price increase is expected in any growing economy. "Eighty-five percent of the difference between 2024 and 2025 is just what we'd call 'normal inflation,'" Milne explained, referring to the standard ~2% annual rise targeted by the Federal Reserve.

Applying his own methodology, Milne estimated the true nationwide cost increase attributable to high inflation is closer to $300 of a total $2,100 rise. For Arizona, he suggests only about $235 of the reported $1,569 increase stems from inflation exceeding normal levels. "The perception that prices are unaffordable stems from the large price increases in recent years," Milne noted, referencing the unprecedented spikes from 2021-2023.

The core issue, economists note, is that even as inflation rates cool toward the 2% target—currently at 2.7%—the cumulative price level remains historically high. Affordability, not just the rate of change, is the lingering challenge for households.

Voices from the Community:

Michael Torres, a small business owner in Tucson: "As someone who budgets tightly, any increase hurts. But the economist has a point—some rise is normal. The political back-and-forth just confuses people who are already stressed at the checkout line."

Linda Chen, a retired teacher in Phoenix: "This isn't about percentages on a chart. It's about choosing between prescriptions and groceries. When officials dismiss that as a 'hoax,' it shows how out of touch they are. The report confirms what we feel every day."

David R. Gibbs, an accountant in Scottsdale: "Both sides are cherry-picking data. The Democrats highlight raw increases to score points, while the economist's 'normal inflation' framing downplays real pain. The truth is, wages haven't kept pace with the cumulative price hikes since 2020, period."

Sarah J. Miller, a graduate student in Tempe: "It's enraging. Arguing over what's 'normal' while people skip meals? The system is broken. Tariffs, corporate greed, failed policy—it's all a distraction from the fact that working people are funding this economic mess."

The Center Square reached out to the offices of Sens. Kelly and Gallego for further comment but did not receive a response prior to publication.