As U.S.-Iran Deal Nears, Israel Intensifies Lebanon Offensive Amid Fears of Emboldened Tehran
WASHINGTON — The White House and Tehran are inching toward a framework that could halt the 89-day-old U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, but the prospect of a deal has triggered a sharp escalation from Israel on the conflict’s other front, where it unleashed waves of airstrikes in Lebanon on Tuesday that killed at least 31 people, according to Lebanese officials.
President Trump is set to convene his Cabinet on Wednesday to discuss the state of negotiations, even as his own allies voice concern that the emerging agreement — centered on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and freezing Iran’s nuclear program — may leave critical issues unresolved and hand Tehran a strategic win. “He’s either going to make a good deal or no deal,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters Tuesday.
Israel’s stated rationale is that Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militia, has repeatedly violated a fragile ceasefire. On Tuesday, the Israel Defense Forces said it struck more than 150 Hezbollah infrastructure sites and personnel across southern Lebanon and the Beqaa Valley. Evacuation orders were issued for the ancient city of Tyre and the city of Nabatieh, where residents were told to flee north of the Zahrani River. Local hospitals reported significant damage, with one strike hitting near a public hospital.
“The IDF does not intend to harm you,” the military said in a statement. “For your safety, you must evacuate your homes immediately.”
Analysts say Israel’s intensified campaign is aimed at degrading Hezbollah’s capabilities before any U.S.-Iran deal freezes the wider conflict, potentially locking in an outcome that leaves the militant group intact. “Israel is trying to maximize its gains before the window closes,” said retired U.S. General David Petraeus, adding that a premature deal could enable Iran to rebuild its proxy network.
Meanwhile, oil markets responded swiftly to signs of detente. Brent crude fell 5% to $94.61 a barrel on Wednesday, while West Texas Intermediate dropped nearly 6% to $89, as traders priced in the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint through which about 20% of global petroleum passes. The U.S. blockade, imposed on April 13, has turned away 109 commercial vessels, according to U.S. Central Command.
Tehran’s state-run IRIB TV network claimed to have obtained a draft “Islamabad Framework” memorandum of understanding, which it said included a U.S. commitment to lift the blockade in exchange for Iran restoring commercial shipping within one month, with Iran retaining the authority to inspect vessels and impose service fees. The White House flatly denied the report, calling it “a complete fabrication.” The Trump administration has repeatedly insisted it will not allow Iran to control the strait or collect tolls.
“Nobody should believe what Iranian state media is putting out. FACTS MATTER,” an official White House account posted on X.
Iran’s intelligence ministry issued a lengthy statement Wednesday characterizing the ongoing standoff as a “47-year full-scale hybrid war” waged by the U.S. and Israel, and warned that while direct military confrontation may have subsided, the battle would continue through economic pressure, cyberattacks, and internal destabilization efforts. “Not only were the enemy’s vile goals not achieved, but the false myth of the invincibility of the Western–Zionist enemy was invalidated,” the ministry said.
On the nuclear front, Deputy Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Ali Bagheri Kani said the country’s roughly 900 pounds of highly enriched uranium is “not on the agenda of the negotiations.” President Trump had previously suggested Iran was prepared to hand over its stockpile, but on Monday he acknowledged the material could be disposed of inside Iran or “at another acceptable location.” A senior administration official said Iran has agreed in principle to disposal, but details are still being worked out.
In a sign of how quickly the diplomatic calculus could shift, a senior official with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps told the semi-official Tasnim news agency that the likelihood of renewed war with the U.S. was low due to “the enemy’s weakness,” but warned, “Do not doubt that we will turn the area from Chabahar to Mahshahr into a graveyard for aggressors.”
The humanitarian toll continues to mount. Lebanon’s health ministry said more than 3,200 people have been killed and nearly 10,000 wounded in the country since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began. On Tuesday alone, the dead included at least four children and three women. India, meanwhile, secured the release of 10 sailors detained by Iran since July, after what New Delhi described as “sustained diplomatic engagement.”
As the Trump administration seeks a pathway to de-escalation, the coming days will test whether a two-step process — first reopening the strait, then negotiating a nuclear compromise — can hold amid competing pressures from Israel, Gulf allies, and domestic critics wary of a deal that may leave Iran’s nuclear infrastructure intact.