Asahi Poll Predicts Landslide Victory for PM Takaichi's LDP in Upcoming Election

By Leika Kihara, Reuters

TOKYO, Feb 2 (Reuters) – Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) appears poised for a commanding victory in Japan's February 8 snap election, according to a weekend survey by the Asahi newspaper. The projected win could reshape the political landscape, granting Takaichi a powerful mandate to advance her signature economic agenda.

The Asahi poll, released Sunday, forecasts the LDP will significantly surpass the 233-seat majority threshold in the 465-seat lower house. The party, which currently holds 198 seats, is expected to form a dominant ruling bloc with its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin), potentially securing around 300 seats combined.

"A landslide victory would not only consolidate Prime Minister Takaichi's control over her party but also clear the path for her expansionary fiscal programs," said Keisuke Tsuruta, a senior bond strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. "Financial markets are bracing for increased likelihood of measures like a consumption tax cut, which could further strain Japan's fiscal sustainability and pressure government bond yields."

The poll highlights a stark reversal of fortune for the main opposition Centrist Reform Alliance, which may lose up to half of its 167 seats. Takaichi called the snap election last month, seeking public support for her economic stimulus plans aimed at combating deflationary pressures and rising living costs.

Her policy push, including a proposed two-year suspension of an 8% levy on food sales, has already stirred market volatility. Investors remain wary of Japan's towering public debt, which exceeds twice the size of its economy. Most major parties have echoed calls for consumption tax relief, making fiscal prudence a central theme in the campaign's final days.

Currently, the ruling coalition holds a narrow majority in the lower house but lacks control of the upper chamber. A strong electoral performance could ease legislative gridlock and accelerate Takaichi's economic agenda.

Reactions & Analysis:

"This isn't just a win; it's a political earthquake," says David Chen, a political risk analyst based in Tokyo. "It grants Takaichi the political capital to pursue truly transformative—and risky—fiscal experiments. The bond market's reaction next week will be the first real test."

"Absolutely predictable. The opposition is in disarray, offering no compelling alternative," comments Akari Tanaka, a small business owner in Osaka. "People are hurting from price hikes. If a tax cut gives families immediate relief, they'll vote for it, even if economists fret about debt down the line."

"A terrifying prospect for fiscal responsibility," argues Michael Finch, a former IMF economist and frequent critic. "This is a blank check for populism. Saddling future generations with more debt to fund short-term tax cuts is reckless governance, not economic strategy. The markets should be more than 'concerned'—they should be alarmed."

"Stability and continuity matter," notes Emiko Sato, a retired civil servant in Sendai. "In uncertain times, voters often stick with the known entity. The PM's message on revitalizing the economy seems to be resonating, despite the complexities."

(Reporting by Leika Kihara; Editing by Cynthia Osterman and Sonali Paul)