ASEAN Holds Firm on Myanmar Peace Plan Despite Stalemate, Eyes Post-Election Engagement

CEBU, Philippines — Southeast Asian nations are maintaining a diplomatic stance on Myanmar that critics call paradoxical: sticking to a peace plan that has plainly failed to stop violence, while cautiously probing for openings after the country's controversial recent election.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), long criticized for its principle of non-interference, finds the Myanmar crisis its most vexing test. The 2021 military coup that ousted Aung San Suu Kyi's elected government unleashed nationwide conflict, creating a humanitarian disaster and a stark challenge to regional stability.

"The Five-Point Consensus remains our reference point, but we must be pragmatic," Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow told The Associated Press in an interview Friday. "The objective is not to isolate Myanmar, but to find a path to bring it back into the fold."

The consensus, agreed in April 2021, calls for an immediate end to violence, inclusive dialogue facilitated by an ASEAN envoy, and humanitarian aid delivery. To date, Myanmar's junta has allowed only limited aid on its own terms while ignoring core demands, as fighting rages between the military and a loose alliance of ethnic armed groups and pro-democracy forces.

Analysts see ASEAN's renewed commitment to the plan as an admission it has few other viable tools. "The bloc is trapped between its own norms and the scale of the crisis," said a regional diplomat speaking on condition of anonymity.

In their meetings in Cebu, foreign ministers discussed potentially using the post-election period—however flawed the vote—as a new entry point. Sihasak suggested that if the new, military-backed administration takes steps to de-escalate violence, particularly against civilians, ASEAN could respond by gradually reintegrating Myanmar's representatives into its meetings.

"Avoiding attacks on civilians, halting air strikes—these would be tangible benchmarks," Sihasak said.

Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro, whose country chairs ASEAN this year, stated the bloc does not recognize the election, held in phases over December and January. Critics and independent observers denounced the poll as neither free nor fair, noting the arrest of dissenters and the absence of Suu Kyi's dissolved National League for Democracy.

Separately, Sihasak revealed he recently renewed a proposal to Myanmar officials to move the ailing 80-year-old Suu Kyi from prison to house arrest for medical reasons, calling it a "humanitarian gesture" that would improve the junta's standing.

The diplomatic maneuvering unfolds as unofficial results show the military-aligned party securing a majority of contested seats, ensuring the army's continued grip on power.

Reader Perspectives:

David Chen, Regional Policy Analyst, Singapore: "ASEAN's stance is strategically patient but increasingly disconnected from ground realities. The 'benchmarks' mentioned are minimal—stopping air strikes shouldn't be a concession, it should be a given. The bloc's unity is being tested as some members push for more engagement while others see legitimacy risks."

María Santos, Humanitarian Aid Worker (formerly based in Yangon): "This gives me a sliver of hope. If this diplomatic channel, however stalled, can secure even slightly better access for aid groups to reach displaced communities in conflict zones, it will save lives. We cannot afford to let perfect be the enemy of the possible when people are starving."

James Fletcher, Editor of 'Asia Democracy Watch', Bangkok: "It's farcical. ASEAN is clinging to a failed plan to save face, while effectively offering the junta rewards for holding a sham election. Engaging with 'leaders' who emerged from a process that excluded the country's most popular party legitimizes the coup. This isn't diplomacy; it's appeasement dressed in bureaucratic language."

Dr. Amina Hassan, Professor of Southeast Asian Studies, Kuala Lumpur: "The subtext here is ASEAN's fear of Myanmar becoming a failed state or drifting closer to other major powers. The consensus is less a roadmap and more a placeholder—a tool to maintain a collective position and keep a channel open, however faint, for when a real political solution might eventually emerge."