ASML's 2026 Outlook: Memory Chip Demand Fuels Record Backlog and Growth Ambitions

ASML Holding NV (NASDAQ: ASML), the Dutch powerhouse in advanced chipmaking equipment, closed a robust fiscal year with fourth-quarter revenue jumping 29% year-over-year. For the full year, net sales reached €32.7 billion, a 15% increase. While earnings per share of €7.35 represented a 33% surge, it narrowly missed analyst expectations, contributing to a recent softening in a stock that has nearly doubled over the past 12 months.

The company's immediate future, however, appears exceptionally bright. ASML enters 2026 with a staggering order backlog of $38.8 billion, bolstered by record quarterly net bookings of €13.2 billion that smashed forecasts. This positions the company for projected 2026 net sales between €34 billion and €39 billion.

The engine behind this momentum is increasingly found in memory chips. A significant 56% of last quarter's net bookings were for memory lithography systems, eclipsing the 44% for logic systems. This shift underscores a pivotal trend: the insatiable demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and advanced DDR DRAM, critical components for artificial intelligence servers and data center infrastructure.

"We are witnessing a perfect storm for memory," stated ASML Chair and CEO Christophe Fouquet on the earnings call. He cited the parallel drivers of massive data center build-outs and the industry's rapid adoption of more complex DRAM nodes requiring additional EUV layers. "Demand is very strong, and supply is expected to remain tight through at least 2026. We are poised to benefit from this dynamic for years to come."

ASML's cutting-edge Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, which accounted for €7.4 billion of the quarterly bookings, are central to manufacturing these next-generation memory chips for key clients like Micron Technology.

Despite the bullish outlook, ASML shares dipped slightly following the report. Analysts attribute this to profit-taking after a strong run, its premium valuation at 55 times earnings, and the company's recent announcement of 1,700 job cuts aimed at streamlining operations to focus R&D spending.

Market Voices

Eleanor Vance, Portfolio Manager at TechGrowth Capital: "The backlog is the story. €13.2 billion in bookings isn't just a number; it's a multi-year visibility into growth that few companies can match. The memory shift isn't cyclical; it's structural, driven by AI's fundamental need for speed and bandwidth."

Marcus Thorne, Semiconductor Analyst at ClearView Research: "While memory is a powerful tailwind, investors are right to pause. The valuation already prices in perfection. Any stumble in AI investment or a delay in DRAM node transitions could pressure margins. The restructuring is a prudent but necessary admission that even champions must adapt."

Rebecca Choi, Founder of 'The Circuit' Newsletter: "It's astounding. ASML essentially holds the keys to the AI kingdom, and everyone is lining up. The 'secret weapon' isn't so secret anymore—it's their EUV monopoly on the most advanced memory production. The job cuts are a cold, corporate calculus, but that backlog is pure fire."

David Kovaleski, Independent Analyst: "Let's not get carried away. They missed on EPS, the stock is priced for a flawless execution, and now they're cutting jobs? The memory boom is real, but so is competition and geopolitical risk. This feels like a 'sell the news' moment after an incredible run."