Bangladesh's Pivotal Vote: A Strategic Reckoning for India, China, and Pakistan
DHAKA — Bangladesh prepares for its first national election since the dramatic ouster of long-time Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in 2024, a vote being scrutinized not just domestically but in the capitals of its powerful neighbors. The February 12 poll is more than a democratic exercise; it is a litmus test for regional influence in South Asia.
The nation is currently steered by an interim administration led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus. The electoral fray is dominated by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami (JIB), both campaigning vigorously since late January. Notably absent is Hasina's Awami League, barred over its role in the deadly crackdown on the 2024 student-led uprising that claimed 1,400 lives. Hasina, now in exile in India and sentenced to death in absentia, has dismissed the upcoming vote as illegitimate.
Analysts describe a "paradigm shift" in Dhaka's foreign policy since Hasina's fall. "The predictable alignment with India has cooled significantly, while ties with Pakistan have warmed and strategic cooperation with China has deepened," observes Khandakar Tahmid Rejwan, a lecturer in global studies at Bangladesh's Independent University.
India: Mending Fences Amid Strategic Anxiety
For New Delhi, the stakes are particularly high. India long viewed Hasina's tenure as a "golden chapter" for bilateral ties, encompassing trade, security, and counter-terrorism. Her overthrow and India's subsequent refusal to extradite her have fueled anti-India sentiment, exacerbated by incidents like the murder of protest leader Osman Hadi and tensions over minority rights.
"India suffered a significant strategic loss when Hasina was ousted," says Michael Kugelman, South Asia senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. "New Delhi is uncomfortable with the interim government's perceived closeness to actors it sees as threatening its interests."
Despite tensions, diplomatic channels remain open. Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Yunus last year, reiterating support for a "stable" Bangladesh. Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar recently visited Dhaka, signaling a desire to rebuild bridges. India appears to be pragmatically engaging with both the BNP and JIB, though analysts suggest it would be more comfortable with a BNP-led government than one dominated by Jamaat.
Pakistan: Seizing an Opening for Rapprochement
Islamabad has moved swiftly to capitalize on the political shift. After decades of frosty relations rooted in the 1971 liberation war, Pakistan has pursued a diplomatic charm offensive under Yunus, resuming direct trade and flights and holding defence dialogues.
"Pakistan aims to heighten India's security concerns by developing closer strategic ties with Dhaka," Rejwan notes, adding that its own economic constraints limit its offerings to primarily defence and cultural diplomacy. While officially neutral, Pakistan would "most prefer" a JIB victory but could accept a BNP government, provided it doesn't fully revert to Delhi's orbit.
China: The Pragmatic Power Player
Beijing's approach remains characteristically pragmatic. A key investor and infrastructure partner under both Hasina and Yunus, China has bolstered its economic and military ties regardless of the political weather. It has engaged with all major parties ahead of the vote.
"For Beijing, political stability in Dhaka is key to protecting its substantial investments," Kugelman states. Rejwan adds that China, unlike India, has no explicit favourite, preferring "inclusive interactions" with all political players. Its primary concern is limiting U.S. influence over the next government.
Voter Voices: A Nation at a Crossroads
As the campaign intensifies, citizens express mixed hopes. Rina Chowdhury, 42, a schoolteacher in Dhaka, says, "We need a government that prioritizes our economy and unity, not one that chooses sides in regional rivalries."
Arif Hassan, 58, a businessman in Chittagong, is more pointed: "For too long, our foreign policy was held hostage by one party's preferences. It's time Bangladesh acted for its own interests first, not as a proxy for Delhi, Beijing, or Islamabad."
Professor Sameera Huq, 49, a political scientist at the University of Dhaka, offers a measured analysis: "The election will reset, not resolve, our regional equations. No government can afford to completely alienate India or ignore the economic gravity of China. Strategic autonomy will be the ultimate test."
The February 12 vote will thus deliver a verdict with reverberations far beyond Bangladesh's borders, setting the course for a new chapter in South Asia's complex geopolitical tapestry.