Bank of America Bullish on Apellis, Upgrades to 'Buy' on Strong Drug Launch and Kidney Disease Prospects
In a notable shift of sentiment, Bank of America has upgraded Apellis Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: APLS) from 'Neutral' to 'Buy,' maintaining a $28 price target. Analyst Tazeen Ahmad argues the market is overlooking the commercial trajectory of Apellis's drug, Empaveli, for rare kidney diseases.
The firm points to a strong launch since the drug's approval in late July, with 267 new patient start forms already secured. This represents an initial 5% penetration of the estimated 5,000-patient U.S. market for these conditions, suggesting a solid foundation for future growth as the drug potentially expands into new treatment areas.
The upgrade comes just a day after Wells Fargo took a more measured stance, reducing its price target on Apellis from $29 to $26 while keeping an 'Overweight' rating. Wells Fargo cited a slower-than-expected commercial rollout for Empaveli in specific kidney disease indications (C3G and IC-MPGN), leading the firm to cut its long-term revenue forecasts for the drug by 20% to 50%.
This divergence highlights the ongoing debate on Wall Street regarding the adoption curve for new, specialized therapies. Analysts note that expectations for Apellis's other key drug, Syfovre for geographic atrophy, remain largely unchanged as the market awaits more real-world data.
Market Voices:
"The BofA upgrade is a validation of the science and the clear, early demand signal," said Dr. Anya Sharma, a biotech portfolio manager at Horizon Capital. "Capturing 5% of a niche market in months is no small feat. The kidney disease space is notoriously challenging, but that's where blockbuster margins are found."
"This is classic analyst whiplash," countered Marcus Thorne, an independent market strategist. "One day a target is cut, the next there's an upgrade. It creates noise, not clarity. The Wells Fargo caution is the reality check—commercializing complex biologics is a marathon, not a sprint, and the market knows it."
"As a patient advocate in the rare disease community, I'm cautiously optimistic," shared Linda Chen, founder of the PNH Alliance. "What matters is not just the stock price, but sustainable access. A successful launch means more patients can potentially benefit from a targeted therapy. That's the metric we watch most closely."
Apellis, a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing therapies for diseases with high unmet medical need. The contrasting analyst views underscore the high-stakes, data-driven nature of the biotech investment landscape, where early launch figures are meticulously scrutinized for signs of long-term viability.