Bay Area Traffic Could Nearly Double If Transit Funding Measures Fail, Report Warns
Bay Area commuters who cross the Bay Bridge or squeeze through the region’s busiest highway chokepoints could see their drives take nearly twice as long if the area’s largest transit systems cannot secure new funding and instead enter what the report calls a “fiscal death spiral,” according to a new analysis.
The San Francisco Bay Area Planning and Urban Research Association (SPUR) released the analysis Sept. 22, examining what could happen if Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART), Caltrain, Muni and the Alameda-Contra Costa Transit District are forced to cut service because two November funding measures fail.
The consequences would be dramatic, the report says. Reduced transit service would push more people into cars, worsening congestion on highways that are already strained and increasing travel distances, parking demand, driving costs and greenhouse gas emissions.
The warning comes after years in which Bay Area transit agencies have struggled to regain pre-pandemic ridership. Several major systems face deep financial gaps, and earlier this year BART, Muni and Caltrain announced plans to reduce service to match shrinking budgets.
Voters in November will weigh the Regional Transit Measure, which would create a five-county tax expected to raise close to $1 billion annually for 14 years, and Proposition H, a new property tax that would generate $177 million a year for 15 years to help fund the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency.
If both pass, the new revenue would help close much of the deficit facing BART, Muni, Caltrain and AC Transit. SPUR, however, wanted to measure the long-term effects on traffic, transit and quality of life if the measures fail.
The report’s most immediate impact would be a sharp increase in traffic delays, especially at major bottlenecks including the Bay Bridge, the Caldecott Tunnel and along I-580, I-680, I-880, State Route 4 and U.S. 101.
Some transit riders could have to drive an average of 10 additional miles each way just to reach an open station, according to the report.
Drivers using those corridors should expect delays through designated bottlenecks to double on average. On I-680, for example, morning or evening commuters could face an additional 15 to 20 minutes beyond their normal daily delays.
Across the region, transit cuts could generate 498 million additional vehicle miles traveled each year — the equivalent of adding 68,200 vehicles to the road — and produce another 184,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide annually, the report estimates.
SPUR also estimates that the average Bay Area transit rider who shifts to driving could see costs rise by an additional $3,280 a year.
Nearly 430,000 people who live near a BART or Caltrain station could lose access to their nearest station if the agencies fail to find new funding, the report says. Low-income communities that depend heavily on public transit would likely be hit hardest.
San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie reiterated his support for Proposition H and the Regional Transit Measure in response to the report, saying it “confirms what we all know, and that is we have to pass Prop H and the Regional Transit Measure.”
“They are essential to our economic recovery,” Lurie said. “And what we learned from this report is that traffic will increase exponentially for those that commute into San Francisco.”
“More traffic means longer commutes, higher costs for families, and a direct threat to our economic recovery.”
Not everyone is convinced by SPUR’s findings. Gregg Dieguez, president of the Committee for Affordable Bay Area Transit, a local group that opposes the measures, told NBC Bay Area that “we want fixes before funding.”
Dieguez questioned why the report did not explore alternative ways to close the agencies’ funding gap by reallocating money.
“Before asking Bay Area residents for another $1.2 billion a year, the transit establishment should demonstrate that it has considered the full range of lower-cost transportation revenue and network design alternatives,” Dieguez told NBC Bay Area.
Noe Padilla is a Northern California reporter for USA TODAY. Contact him at [email protected], follow him on X @1NoePadilla or on Bluesky @noepadilla.bsky.social. Sign up for the TODAY Californian newsletter or follow TODAY Californian on Facebook.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Bay Area traffic could double if transit measures fail, report finds.