Beyond Stocks and Crypto: Three Fintech Brokers Bet Big on Prediction Markets

The world of finance is placing bets on more than just stock prices. Prediction markets, where users can trade contracts on the outcome of future events, have surged from niche curiosity to a legitimate growth segment, especially after platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket secured regulatory approvals to expand beyond politics into areas like sports.

Now, major fintech players are entering the arena, seeing it as a potential new revenue stream and a way to engage their user bases. While some are partnering with established prediction platforms, others are building their own. The strategic approaches vary, but the goal is the same: to capitalize on this burgeoning trend.

Three prominent publicly traded brokerages—Webull (NASDAQ: BULL), Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD), and Interactive Brokers (NASDAQ: IBKR)—have each taken a distinct path into prediction markets. Their early moves offer a window into how this experimental asset class might influence their financial futures.

Webull: Seeking a Turnaround Catalyst

Webull's stock has been volatile since its SPAC-led public debut in spring 2025, facing headwinds from concerns over its Chinese ownership ties. Despite this, the company posted robust Q3 2025 results, with revenue jumping 55% year-over-year and a return to profitability. Its partnership with Kalshi, launched last year, is viewed as a contributor to this strength, adding a novel product to its core offering of stocks, options, and crypto.

While analysts project a slight earnings dip for 2026, the growth in prediction market activity, combined with a potential recovery in its main trading volumes, could provide an upside surprise and help stabilize the share price.

Robinhood: Balancing Excitement and Caution

Robinhood's stock enjoyed a strong run through much of 2025 but stumbled in the final quarter after reporting an unexpected drop in trading volumes. Investor optimism now partially hinges on its prediction markets venture, also powered by Kalshi. The company made a significant push in December 2025, expanding the variety of event contracts available to its large retail user base.

However, early December data suggested the trading volume softness may have persisted, casting a shadow over the immediate impact of this expansion. Market watchers are advising a cautious approach, awaiting clearer signs that prediction markets can meaningfully move the needle for Robinhood's top line.

Interactive Brokers: A Niche, High-Stakes Approach

Interactive Brokers has taken a more targeted route with its ForecastTrader platform, focusing strictly on contracts for political, economic, and climate events. This aligns with its sophisticated, institutional-leaning clientele but likely limits its mass-market appeal. Consequently, the near-term financial impact for IBKR is expected to be more muted compared to its retail-focused rivals.

The investment thesis for Interactive Brokers rests less on prediction markets and more on its solid fundamentals. Despite a premium valuation of 33 times forward earnings, the company is forecast to deliver steady double-digit earnings growth in 2026 and 2027, which could justify and support its current share price.

Market Voices: What Investors Are Saying

"This is a logical evolution for brokerages," says Marcus Chen, a portfolio manager at Horizon Capital. "They own the customer relationship and the trading infrastructure. Adding prediction markets is a low-friction way to increase user engagement and tap into a new, event-driven trading behavior."

"I'm skeptical of the near-term revenue impact," notes David Riggs, an independent financial analyst. "For Robinhood and Webull, this feels more like a shiny new feature to retain users in a competitive market rather than a serious profit center. The contract sizes are typically small."

"It's a distraction, plain and simple," argues Sarah J. Vance, a vocal critic on financial forums. "Instead of fixing core issues—like Robinhood's volatile trading volumes or Webull's governance concerns—they're chasing fads. This feels like 2021's meme-stock hype all over again, just wrapped in a new 'prediction' package. Regulators will be watching closely."

"The real test will be sustainability," adds Arjun Patel, a fintech consultant. "Can these platforms consistently offer liquid, interesting markets that aren't just about elections or the Super Bowl? The broker that cracks the code on daily, non-speculative event hedging for small businesses or individuals might find a truly durable market."

Disclosure: The author has no position in any stocks mentioned. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.