Beyond the Boom: How U.S. Renewable Energy Navigates a Pivotal 2026
NEWPORT BEACH/NEW YORK – The U.S. renewable energy industry is entering 2026 at a crossroads. Last year’s figures were staggering: 92% of all new power capacity came from renewables, according to Cleanview analysis, proving the sector’s resilience against trade tensions, policy shifts, and climate disasters. Yet, this very success is ushering in a new phase of complex challenges. The question is no longer about growth, but about managing it intelligently under mounting pressure.
"2025 was about proving we could build through the storm," says Rosa van Reyk, Head of North America West Coast at Tokio Marine GX. "2026 is about ensuring that growth is durable, profitable, and insurable for the long haul."
The solar sector remains the dominant engine, accounting for roughly 75% of new generation last year as overall U.S. power demand rose for the first time in two decades. However, the race to secure components before key tax incentives expire is compressing project timelines, straining contractor capacity, and elevating construction risks. In response, developers are increasingly turning to co-located solar and battery storage (BESS) projects to enhance grid value and profitability, though this introduces new layers of technical and financial complexity.
A less visible but critical risk is emerging from "aggregation." The clustering of vast new renewable capacity in hotspots like California, Texas, and Arizona means a single extreme weather event can now threaten multiple projects sharing infrastructure. This is forcing a fundamental shift in how insurers assess risk, moving from evaluating assets in isolation to a systemic view of regional exposure.
Extreme weather, particularly wildfires and severe convective storms, remains the paramount physical threat. The market has learned hard lessons, with the solar sector investing heavily in mitigation like hail stowing protocols after significant losses. "The outlier is becoming the norm," notes Michael Galea, Head of North America East Coast at Tokio Marine GX. "Proactive risk management and deeper insurer partnerships are non-negotiable for asset protection."
Meanwhile, the aging U.S. wind fleet presents a unique opportunity. With many turbines from the early 2000s nearing retirement and new greenfield projects bogged down by permits, "repowering" existing sites with modern technology can boost energy yield by up to 300%. It’s a low-risk strategy to unlock value, but each project carries unique decommissioning and rebuild risks that require careful management.
The insurance market itself is adapting. As assets grow larger and more complex, there is a pressing need for innovative products, especially around tax credit monetization and new technology performance. The sector’s ability to sustain its momentum will depend not just on engineering breakthroughs, but on parallel innovations in financial risk transfer.
Voices from the Industry
"The aggregation risk in places like West Texas keeps me up at night. We’re putting too many eggs in baskets that are directly in the path of increasingly volatile weather. The industry’s success is becoming its own Achilles' heel if we don't diversify geographically and harden our infrastructure." – David Chen, CFO of a midwestern solar developer.
"This focus on risk feels like fear-mongering that could slow down the transition. We just had a banner year! The market is innovating faster than the reports suggest. Co-location and repowering are brilliant solutions, not problems. Let’s stop hand-wringing and keep building." – Anya Sharma, Founder & CEO of a green tech advisory firm.
"The repowering trend is the unsung hero of our decarbonization goals. It’s pragmatic—avoiding new land use and grid connection battles—and massively efficient. It shows the industry is maturing from a wild-west build-out to a strategic asset optimization phase." – Marcus Thorne, Energy Infrastructure Analyst at ClearView Capital.
— Rosa van Reyk and Michael Galea lead Tokio Marine GX's North American renewable energy practice. Tokio Marine GX, part of the Tokio Marine Group, provides specialized insurance for sustainable energy projects.