Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Traders Split on Path to $100K or Retreat to $69K Amid Shutdown Jitters

Bitcoin traders are facing a starkly divided outlook, with predictions for the cryptocurrency's next major move almost evenly split between a plunge to $69,000 and a surge to the coveted $100,000 mark. This deadlock, reflected on the prediction market platform Myriad, marks the first bearish sentiment shift in nearly two months and underscores the market's fragility amid external political shocks.

Data from Myriad—owned by Decrypt's parent company Dastan—shows the odds hovering around a 50-50 split over the past 24 hours, briefly tilting toward a downward move at several points. As of publication, a slight majority (51.6%) of predictors favor a rebound, but the margin is razor-thin.

The uncertainty follows a turbulent 24 hours for digital assets. Bitcoin's price fell nearly 2% to $82,927, according to CoinGecko, shaken by the U.S. Senate's blockage of a federal funding deal. With a partial government shutdown looming, traders were left grappling with the prospect of a repeat of the historic 35-day closure that ended just two months prior. Although a last-minute agreement between President Trump and Senate Democrats was reported Thursday night, the lack of a scheduled vote by Friday morning kept markets on edge.

"The shadow of a shutdown acts like a blanket over risk appetite," said Marcus Thorne, a veteran portfolio manager at Horizon Capital. "For crypto, which is still establishing its correlation to macro events, this injects a layer of complexity that many algorithms and short-term traders struggle to price in."

The broader market mood has turned deeply pessimistic. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index—which tracks volatility, social media sentiment, search trends, and other metrics—plummeted 10 points to 16, landing in "Extreme Fear" territory for the first time this year.

While traditional equities like the Nasdaq quickly recovered from a sell-off triggered by Microsoft's disappointing earnings, Bitcoin's lagging response highlighted its continued vulnerability. "Bitcoin failed to mirror the Nasdaq's rebound, which points to ongoing weakness in the underlying market structure," noted Bitbank analyst Yukari Kusu in a research memo.

Looking ahead, analysts point to potential catalysts, including President Trump's upcoming nomination for Federal Reserve Chair. However, the immediate overhang of fiscal dysfunction in Washington suggests the path of least resistance may be downward. "BTC could remain exposed to further selling pressure before any sustained recovery takes hold," Kusu added.

Sarah Chen, Crypto Strategist at Apex Fund: "This is a classic stress test for Bitcoin's narrative as a hedge. The 50-50 prediction split isn't just about price—it's a referendum on whether crypto can decouple from traditional political risk. The next support level around $80K is critical."

David Rivera, Independent Trader: "The whole situation is infuriating. We're held hostage by political theater in D.C. every few months. This isn't 'digital gold' behavior—it's a speculative asset getting whipped around by the same old fiscal irresponsibility. The Fear & Greed Index says it all: we're back to panic mode."

Priya Mehta, Fintech Professor at Stanford: "The Myriad data is fascinating because it captures a moment of true equilibrium in trader psychology. Neither bulls nor bears have conviction. In the short term, this typically resolves with a sharp move once a clear catalyst emerges, be it from the Fed or a budget resolution."