Bitcoin's Bear Market Deepens: Analyst PlanB Maps Out Four Potential Price Scenarios
Bitcoin (BTC) breached the psychologically significant $70,000 level on February 5, cementing a bearish turn in market sentiment. The move came as veteran quantitative analyst PlanB, known for his stock-to-flow model, declared the cryptocurrency market has entered a definitive bear phase, prompting traders to urgently search for a potential price floor.
"The data is clear. We are in a bear market," PlanB stated, pointing to Bitcoin's January close near $78,000—a stark 40% decline from its October peak of approximately $126,000. Technical indicators reinforce the grim outlook; the Relative Strength Index (RSI) closed January at 49, firmly placing Bitcoin in a downtrend zone. Historically, similar RSI conditions have preceded prolonged bear markets in 2014, 2018, and 2022.
In his latest analysis, PlanB presented four distinct scenarios for how this downturn could unfold, drawing parallels to previous market cycles:
- The Worst-Case Scenario: Mirroring the deepest historical crashes where BTC fell roughly 80% from its all-time high, this path could see Bitcoin plummet toward $25,000.
- The 200-Week MA Target: A decline toward the 200-week moving average, a key long-term support level, would imply a price range between $50,000 and $60,000.
- The Milder Correction: Bitcoin could stabilize just above its previous cycle high, finding a bottom in the $69,000 to $70,000 range.
- The Bottom Is In: The recent low near $72,900 might already represent the cycle's trough, suggesting a swift conclusion to the bear phase.
PlanB noted that the preceding bull run was comparatively weaker, which could paradoxically lead to a less severe drop this time. He maintains that the traditional four-year cycle framework remains valid, though the timing of peaks and troughs may have shifted.
Broader market metrics underscore the caution gripping investors. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has shed about 25% over the past month. Simultaneously, stablecoin dominance has climbed to a 2.5-year high, signaling a flight to safety and a reluctance to deploy fresh capital. "The rise in stablecoin share is a classic hallmark of crypto winter," one market strategist noted.
Adding to the selling pressure, on-chain data reveals institutional players, including entities like Trend Research and even the national treasury of Bhutan, have been reducing their crypto exposures. Technically, Bitcoin has broken below its 100-week moving average—a development that in past cycles often precipitated a swift drop toward the 200-week MA before any sustained recovery could begin.
Some analysts observe this cycle is progressing at an accelerated pace. Bitcoin's peak arrived earlier than many models predicted, and the subsequent decline has been sharp. While bear markets have historically averaged 12 months, this accelerated rhythm raises the possibility that a bottom could form as early as June to August this year.
Market Reactions
Sarah Chen, Portfolio Manager at Vertex Capital: "PlanB's scenarios provide a necessary framework, but they're entirely backward-looking. This cycle is fundamentally different with spot ETFs and macro conditions. The 200-week MA around $55K is my base case for a consolidation zone."
Marcus "CryptoBear" Reynolds, Independent Trader: "This is just more fear-mongering from the same analysts who missed the top. Calling a bear market after a 40% drop is genius-level hindsight. The institutions are selling because they got in late and are panic-exiting. We're not going to $25K—that's absurd."
Dr. Aris Thorne, Financial Cybernetics Professor: "The critical variable is the shifting cycle length. If the compression theory holds, the rapid price discovery we're seeing could mean a shorter, more volatile bear phase, invalidating comparisons to 2018 or 2022. The market's metabolism has changed."
Lena Rodriguez, Retail Investor Advocate: "It's terrifying for everyday holders. Every analyst has a different model and a different bottom. This uncertainty is what shakes people out at a loss. The focus should be on risk management, not price predictions."