Blue Bird Set to Report Q4 Earnings: Can the School Bus Maker Extend Its Winning Streak?
Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ: BLBD), a leading manufacturer of school buses, is scheduled to announce its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings after the closing bell this Wednesday. The report comes at a pivotal time for the heavy transportation sector, which has seen volatile performance among key players.
In the previous quarter, Blue Bird delivered a robust performance, surpassing revenue expectations by 7.7% with sales of $409.4 million—a significant 16.9% increase from the prior year. The company also exceeded analyst projections for both earnings per share (EPS) and EBITDA, signaling strong operational execution.
For the upcoming report, Wall Street anticipates revenue of approximately $330 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 5.1%. This marks a notable turnaround from the 1.2% decline recorded in the same period last year. Adjusted earnings are forecasted at $0.80 per share. Analyst consensus has remained largely steady over the past month, reflecting confidence in the company's trajectory. Historically, Blue Bird has a track record of beating revenue estimates, having done so for eight consecutive quarters with an average surprise of 6.5%.
The broader heavy transportation equipment segment offers a mixed backdrop. Peer Greenbrier recently posted a 19.4% year-over-year revenue drop yet still beat estimates, while PACCAR reported a 13.7% decline but also topped forecasts. Market reactions were divergent: Greenbrier's shares fell over 10% post-earnings, whereas PACCAR's stock held steady.
Investor sentiment in the sector has been generally positive, with average share prices climbing 7.1% over the last month. Blue Bird's stock has slightly outperformed this trend, rising 7.7% during the same period. The current average analyst price target stands at $63.75, suggesting potential upside from recent trading levels around $51.49.
Analyst & Investor Commentary:
"Blue Bird has consistently demonstrated an ability to navigate supply chain and demand cycles better than many of its peers. Their focus on electric school buses positions them well for future municipal contracts," says Michael Torres, portfolio manager at Horizon Capital Advisors.
"The stock's run-up feels overextended ahead of earnings. This is a cyclical business tied to education budgets—hardly a growth darling. One miss and the narrative crumbles," argues Sarah Chen, founding partner at ClearSight Hedge Fund, offering a more critical perspective.
"As a long-term shareholder, I'm less focused on a single quarter and more on the multi-year shift to cleaner student transportation. The fundamentals support a hold," notes David Riggs, an independent retail investor.
"The comparison to peers like Greenbrier isn't straightforward. Blue Bird's niche provides some insulation, but macro pressures on manufacturing costs are a universal headwind," observes Priya Sharma, senior analyst at Mercator Research.