Brent Crude Eyes $95 as Technical Pattern Signals Potential Reversal

LONDON – Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, is charting a course for a potential recovery toward $95 a barrel, as a key technical formation suggests the market's prolonged downtrend may be nearing an end. The price has been in retreat since hitting a peak above $140 in March 2022, a spike fueled by the initial shock of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. While that extreme risk premium has faded, prices have found a firmer floor, transitioning from panic-driven swings to a steadier corrective phase.

"The market has been digesting the post-shock reality for over two years," said Anya Sharma, a senior commodities strategist at Veritas Macro Advisors. "What we're seeing now isn't a demand collapse story, but a market slowly re-aligning with underlying fundamentals that are becoming increasingly supportive."

Those fundamentals include a steady demand outlook. According to OPEC's latest Monthly Oil Market Report, global oil demand is projected to grow by a robust 1.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2026, followed by another 1.3 mb/d in 2027, driven primarily by Asia and other non-OECD economies. On the supply side, growth from non-OPEC producers is expected to be more modest, at around 0.6 mb/d annually for the same period.

This balance leaves little room for error. Global inventories, while recovering, remain below long-term averages, and the market structure known as backwardation—where near-term prices trade above later-dated ones—persists, signaling ongoing physical tightness.

Into this mix step renewed geopolitical tensions. While headline risks from the Middle East have eased recently, analysts warn that markets may be growing complacent. "The geopolitical floor for oil prices is undeniably higher now than it was two years ago," noted David Chen, managing partner at Cartography Capital. "Developments in major producing regions, from policy shifts in Latin America to ongoing instability, act as a constant reminder that spare capacity is a political concept as much as a geological one."

The Technical Case for a Turnaround

The charts are now echoing this cautiously bullish macro narrative. Technical analysis points to the completion of a complex, multi-year corrective pattern. The critical level to watch has been $58.70 per barrel, a zone that has repeatedly acted as a springboard, absorbing selling pressure and confirming its role as long-term support.

This defense has laid the groundwork for a potential "double bottom" reversal pattern—a classic technical formation where the price fails twice to break decisively below a key support level, signaling exhaustion among sellers. The pattern's projected technical target, if confirmed, lies in the $95 to $95.70 range.

"The double bottom is a powerful signal, but it's not a green light for a straight line higher," cautioned Sharma. "The path toward $95 is littered with significant resistance levels, first at $77.50, then $82, and $88. Each needs to be convincingly cleared to maintain the bullish momentum."

Trader Reactions: Cautious Optimism Meets Skepticism

The potential shift is drawing mixed reactions from market participants.

"This is the setup we've been waiting for," said Marcus Thorne, a veteran oil futures trader at an independent London desk. "The fundamentals are quietly tightening, and the charts are finally catching up. A break above $77.50 could trigger a wave of algorithmic buying that pushes us toward $80 surprisingly fast."

"It's pure chartist fantasy," retorted Elaine Forsythe, a portfolio manager focused on energy equities. "The market is desperately clinging to any pattern that promises a return to the good old days. Global growth is fragile, the energy transition hasn't gone away, and pretending a few lines on a graph override that is reckless. This rally, if it even happens, will be sold into aggressively."

"The technicals provide a useful roadmap, but geopolitics will write the actual script," added Chen, striking a more measured tone. "A confirmed breakout would signal that traders are pricing in a higher probability of supply disruptions or a demand surge, not just drawing triangles."

While the technical outlook has clearly improved, analysts agree that the nascent recovery remains fragile. A failure to overcome the initial resistance at $77.50 could condemn prices to further range-bound trading. However, the confluence of a tightening physical market, resilient demand, and a clear technical reversal pattern suggests the bearish grip on Brent crude may finally be loosening.

Analysis by Global Markets Desk. Originally reported by FX Empire.