Brookdale Senior Living Stock Surges to 8-Year Peak After Analyst Upgrade, Strong Outlook
Shares of Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (NYSE: BKD) surged to an eight-year high on Thursday, extending a three-day rally after a major Wall Street firm boosted its price target on the stock by over 30%.
The stock climbed as high as $14.63 during the session before closing at $14.50, a gain of 10.6% for the day. The rally reflects growing investor confidence in the senior housing operator's financial trajectory.
The catalyst was a bullish note from RBC Capital Markets. The firm raised its price target on Brookdale to $17 from $13, maintaining an "Outperform" rating. The upgrade followed Brookdale's release of preliminary financial results for the full year 2025.
According to the preliminary report, Brookdale expects 2025 revenue of approximately $3.2 billion, a 3% increase from the prior year. However, the company anticipates a net loss of $263 million, wider than the $202 million loss in 2024, primarily due to higher non-cash impairment charges.
A key bright spot was the projected 19% year-over-year increase in Adjusted EBITDA, expected to reach $458 million, hitting the midpoint of the company's prior guidance. Looking ahead to 2026, management is targeting revenue per available room growth of 8-9% and Adjusted EBITDA between $502 million and $516 million.
The senior living sector, once pressured by pandemic-related costs and labor challenges, is showing signs of a sustained recovery driven by demographic tailwinds and operational improvements. Brookdale's updated guidance suggests it is capturing benefits from improved occupancy and pricing power.
Sarah Chen, Portfolio Manager at Horizon Wealth Advisors: "This isn't just a one-day pop. The guidance for 2026 shows a clear path to meaningful EBITDA expansion. The market is finally pricing in the structural demand story of an aging population and Brookdale's scale advantage."
Michael Rossi, Independent Market Analyst: "Let's not get carried away. They're still posting massive net losses. The 'adjusted' metrics look fine, but real profitability remains elusive. This feels like a momentum trade on thin fundamentals, and retail investors might get burned when the music stops."
David Park, Senior Care Industry Consultant: "The revised targets are achievable if occupancy trends continue. The sector's supply constraints are working in favor of established players like Brookdale. The RBC upgrade validates the turnaround narrative that's been building for quarters."
Linda Gibson, Retired Nurse: "As someone who visits these facilities, I hope the stock gains translate to better staff pay and resident care. Too often, Wall Street wins and the seniors lose. I'll believe in their success when I see it on the ground."
Photo by Belushi / Shutterstock