Buffett's 2016 Bets: A Decade Later, Apple Outshines Even Berkshire Hathaway
For decades, investors have scrutinized Warren Buffett's portfolio moves for clues to long-term value. While replicating the Oracle of Omaha's exact strategy is nearly impossible, examining his major commitments reveals powerful narratives about patience and conviction in the markets.
At the close of 2016, Buffett's top holdings included stalwarts like Coca-Cola and American Express. Yet, his most consequential move that year was initiating a massive position in Apple Inc. What began as a new investment swiftly became Berkshire Hathaway's largest holding, a bet that would define the decade for many of his followers.
We analyzed the performance of three potential 2016 investments inspired by Buffett: shares of his own Berkshire Hathaway, the Apple stock he championed, and the S&P 500 index funds he routinely recommends to everyday investors.
The Berkshire Benchmark
On January 29, 2016, Berkshire Hathaway's Class B shares closed at $129.77. A decade later, by January 30, 2026, they reached $480.53—a solid 270% gain. A $10,000 investment would have grown to approximately $37,000. The conglomerate, often seen as a bellwether for the broader U.S. economy, has more than doubled in value over the past five years alone, despite its recent modest gains.
The Apple Windfall
Buffett's Apple investment, however, delivered a masterclass in growth. Starting from an adjusted price of $21.95 per share in early 2016, Apple's stock soared to $259.48 by early 2026—a monumental 1,082% increase. The same $10,000 stake would have ballooned to about $118,200. This surge was fueled by sustained iPhone dominance, explosive growth in high-margin services, and resilient demand in key markets like China. The company's aggressive share buyback program and strategic pivot into artificial intelligence provided additional tailwinds.
The Index Fund Alternative
True to his advice for the average investor, the S&P 500 proved a formidable contender. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) rose from $164.19 to $691.97 over the same period, a 321% return turning $10,000 into $42,100. This performance underscores Buffett's frequent counsel that low-cost index funds are a reliable path to wealth building, requiring neither stock-picking genius nor constant monitoring.
Market Voices: Reader Reactions
Michael R., Portfolio Manager (New York): "This analysis validates a core principle: concentration builds wealth, diversification preserves it. Buffett's courage to make Apple such a large bet, even late in the game, is what separates legendary investors from the rest."
Sarah Chen, Tech Analyst (San Francisco): "While the Apple returns are staggering, it's crucial to remember this was a unique convergence of product cycles, ecosystem lock-in, and global expansion. Replicating this specific success is highly unlikely in the next decade."
David P., Retail Investor (Chicago): "It's a classic case of 'hindsight is 20/20.' For every Apple, there are dozens of value traps. This 'what-if' fantasy is mostly useless noise for those of us trying to plan for the future, not romanticize the past."
Eleanor James, Financial Educator (Austin): "The real takeaway for me is the S&P 500's strong showing. It quietly delivered over 300% returns, reminding us that consistent, low-effort investing in the broad market is an incredibly powerful strategy that's accessible to everyone."
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended as financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including potential loss of principal. Consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.