Canada Posts First Trade Surplus in Six Months as Oil, Gold Exports Surge on Middle East Turmoil
(Bloomberg) — Canada recorded its first trade surplus in six months in March, driven by a sharp jump in gold and crude oil exports as the Iran conflict rattled global markets and reshuffled supply chains.
Statistics Canada reported Tuesday that the country posted a C$1.8 billion ($1.3 billion) surplus, a dramatic reversal from the C$5.1 billion deficit recorded in February. The figure far exceeded the C$2.5 billion deficit economists had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.
The last time Canada saw a trade surplus was September 2025, and the turnaround underscores how resource-rich economies are benefiting from the geopolitical premium now attached to energy and precious metals.
“This is a textbook wartime trade bounce,” said Elena Marchetti, a trade analyst at a Toronto-based commodities research firm. “Canada is selling what the world suddenly needs more of: safe-haven gold and reliable oil. But let’s not pretend this is a sign of economic strength — it’s a crisis dividend.”
Overall exports rose 8.5% in March, hitting their highest level since January 2025. The biggest driver was a 24% surge in metal and non-metallic mineral exports, which reached a record C$15.3 billion. Unwrought gold, silver, and platinum group metals led the charge, with gold shipments to the U.K. spiking even as global gold prices dipped during the month.
Energy exports climbed 15.6%, the highest since September 2022, as crude oil prices firmed. Crude exports alone jumped 18.9%. Auto exports also rose 4.5%, building on a strong February.
“Higher global energy prices are helping Canada’s nominal trade position, but they’re not yet translating into a meaningful boost in real economic activity,” said Andrew Grantham, senior economist at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, in a note to clients.
Imports fell 1.6% in March after hitting a record in February, with declines across eight of 11 product categories. Pharmaceutical imports dropped 9.3%, dragging down consumer goods. In volume terms, imports fell 2%, while export volumes slipped 0.3%.
Marc Ercolao, an economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, said net trade likely subtracted from first-quarter GDP growth. But he added: “Looking ahead, higher oil prices should meaningfully lift nominal export values into Q2, further improving the trade balance.”
Canada’s trade surplus with the U.S. widened to C$7.1 billion, the highest since September 2025, as exports to the U.S. rose 8.3% — driven by crude and passenger vehicles — while imports from the U.S. slipped 1.2% on lower aircraft purchases.
Exports to non-U.S. countries hit a record for the second straight month, rising 9.1%, led by gold to the U.K. and crude to Germany and the Netherlands. The trade deficit with non-U.S. countries narrowed to C$5.3 billion, the smallest since January 2021.
“It’s nice to see a surplus, but anyone cheering this is missing the point,” said Jake Morrison, a small business owner in Calgary who works in logistics. “We’re making money off war and instability. That’s not something to celebrate — it’s a reminder of how fragile this boom really is.”
The two-year Canadian government bond yield dipped about two basis points to 3.029%, while the loonie firmed 0.1% to C$1.3617 per U.S. dollar.
— With assistance from Mario Baker Ramirez.
©2026 Bloomberg L.P.