Ceasefire Fails to Unclog Hormuz as Shipping Industry Remains Wary
By Bloomberg News
The critical Strait of Hormuz remained a maritime bottleneck on Wednesday, with ship traffic at a near standstill despite an overnight ceasefire announcement between the United States and Iran. The tentative deal, aimed at halting recent hostilities, has so far failed to convince a cautious global shipping industry that the world's most important oil transit route is safe.
Data compiled by Bloomberg showed a mere three vessels exiting the Persian Gulf on Wednesday—a stark contrast to the typical daily flow of around 135 transits. Over 800 commercial vessels remain trapped inside the Gulf, their owners in a holding pattern. Iranian state media reported that passage for tankers would stay blocked following recent attacks in Lebanon, underscoring the fragile and conditional nature of the truce.
"The announcement is a first step, but it is not a green light," said Neil Roberts, head of marine and aviation at the Lloyd's Market Association. "The underlying geopolitical tensions are unresolved, and the risk profile in the region remains severely elevated. Commercial traffic will not simply resume at the flip of a switch."
The core of the impasse lies in conflicting interpretations of the ceasefire terms. Iran has stated that safe passage is contingent on coordination with its armed forces and remains subject to "technical limitations." Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump declared a "COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING" of the strait. This discrepancy has left shipowners scrambling for clarity.
Major carriers echoed the uncertainty. A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S noted the pause "may create transit opportunities" but lacked "full maritime certainty." Germany's Hapag-Lloyd AG said it would continue rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope for now. The Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO) warned that leaving the Gulf without prior coordination with both nations "would entail heightened risk."
The stakes are enormous. The strait handles roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Its effective closure since late February has triggered a historic supply crunch, keeping global energy markets on edge. Data from Kpler shows 426 tankers carrying crude and fuels, plus dozens of LNG and LPG carriers, are among the idled fleet.
Crew welfare is a paramount concern. The International Maritime Organization estimates some 20,000 seafarers are stranded aboard these vessels, facing dwindling supplies and mounting psychological stress.
"You don't switch global shipping flows back on in 24 hours," said Jennifer Parker, an adjunct professor at the University of Western Australia's Defence and Security Institute. "Tanker owners, insurers, and crews need to believe the risk has actually reduced—not just paused."
Industry Voices: A Spectrum of Reaction
Captain Aris Vournas, a veteran Greek tanker master with a ship currently anchored off Dubai, struck a pragmatic note: "My first duty is to my crew and ship. We've seen the announcements, but until my company's security team and our insurers give us a clear 'all-clear' based on verifiable protocols, we wait. Hope is not a risk management strategy."
Sarah Chen, a shipping analyst based in Singapore, offered a measured perspective: "The market is in a 'wait-and-see' mode. The first few transits by non-affiliated vessels will be critical. If they pass without incident and insurance premiums adjust downward, a slow trickle will begin. But a full return to normalcy is weeks away, at best."
James O'Connell, a commodities trader in London, reacted with sharp frustration: "It's an absolute farce. We have a ceasefire in name only that's doing nothing to get oil moving. Tehran is using this as leverage to extort tolls and control traffic, while Washington's triumphant declaration is completely detached from reality on the water. This isn't diplomacy; it's economic hostage-taking, and the global economy is paying the price."
Fatima Al-Mahmoud, a port authority official in Fujairah, highlighted the regional impact: "The backlog stretches far beyond the horizon. Our anchorages are full, logistics are strained, and the uncertainty is paralyzing. Every day this continues, the economic damage to regional trade and reputational damage to our ports deepens."
The international community is pushing for action. IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez said he was working with relevant parties "to implement an appropriate mechanism to ensure the safe transit of ships." The priority, he stressed, was an evacuation that guarantees navigational safety.
For now, the world watches a handful of data points. The movement, or lack thereof, of the first LNG carriers and large crude tankers not linked to Iran will signal whether the Strait of Hormuz is truly open for business, or if the ceasefire has merely frozen a crisis in place.
—With assistance from Stephen Stapczynski, Dan Murtaugh, Tsuyoshi Inajima and Christian Wienberg.