Chevron Outperforms Q4 Profit Forecasts Amid Cost-Cutting Drive, Eyes Expansion in Venezuela
By Sheila Dang
HOUSTON, Jan 30 (Reuters) – Chevron Corp. navigated a year of softer oil prices to deliver fourth-quarter profits that surpassed Wall Street forecasts, the company reported Friday, crediting a relentless focus on cost discipline and operational efficiency. Against a backdrop of significant geopolitical change, the energy major also indicated it is poised to deepen its longstanding ties to Venezuela.
The San Ramon, California-based company posted adjusted earnings of $1.52 per share for the quarter ended Dec. 31, edging past the LSEG consensus estimate of $1.45 per share. The result, however, marks a decline from the $2.06 per share reported a year earlier.
Chevron’s position in Venezuela has moved to the forefront following the U.S.-led removal of former leader Nicolas Maduro earlier this month. As the only U.S. oil producer currently operating there, Chevron is now evaluating avenues to expand its footprint. The company currently produces approximately 250,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the country.
"Our century-long history in Venezuela is a foundation for the future," said CEO Mike Wirth in a statement. "We are committed to playing a constructive role in its present recovery and stand ready to support its energy future, which aligns with strengthening regional and U.S. energy security."
Chief Financial Officer Eimear Bonner, in an interview with Reuters, noted that with additional U.S. government authorizations, Chevron could boost its Venezuelan output by 50% within 18 to 24 months. She reiterated points from a recent White House meeting between industry executives and President Donald Trump, emphasizing that any new investments would be approached with characteristic fiscal caution. "Our strategy for growth remains anchored in capital discipline," Bonner stated.
The Trump administration’s decision on Thursday to ease certain sanctions on Venezuela, aimed at revitalizing its oil industry, appears to create a more favorable environment for such plans.
Production Holds Steady, Guidance Maintained
Chevron’s total global production held steady at 4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in the fourth quarter, unchanged from the previous quarter but up year-over-year following its acquisition of Hess Corp. The company highlighted strong operational performance in Kazakhstan, the Permian Basin, and the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.
Looking ahead, Chevron projects its 2026 production will grow by 7% to 10%, supported by key projects in Guyana and the Gulf of Mexico. For the current first quarter, the company anticipates planned maintenance activities will temporarily reduce upstream output by 185,000 to 225,000 boepd and lower downstream earnings by $275 million to $325 million.
The company returned $24.9 billion to shareholders in 2025 through $12.8 billion in dividends and $12.1 billion in share repurchases. The buyback figure landed at the low end of its $10 billion to $20 billion annual guidance range.
By segment, fourth-quarter upstream earnings fell 30% year-over-year to $3 billion, pressured by lower commodity prices. Downstream earnings swung to a profit of $823 million from a year-ago loss of $248 million, buoyed by improved refining margins.
Market Reaction & Analyst Views
"Chevron is demonstrating it can generate cash and beat estimates even in a lower price environment," said Michael Thorne, energy analyst at Beryl Capital. "The Venezuela angle is a strategic wild card. If stability returns, their first-mover advantage could be substantial."
Sarah Chen, portfolio manager at Horizon Wealth Advisors, offered a more measured take: "The cost control is impressive and necessary. The Venezuela talk, however, feels premature. The political and operational risks there remain immense, and shareholders should hope the 'capital discipline' she mentioned applies doubly to any ventures there."
A sharper critique came from David Forsythe, head of the activist investment group Fair Share Capital: "This is a company trying to have it both ways. They tout efficiency while sitting on a massive cash pile and doing the bare minimum on buybacks. And now they're flirting with Venezuela again? It reeks of geopolitical opportunism over sober, long-term value creation for shareholders."
Anita Rossi, a veteran industry consultant and former engineer, focused on operations: "Their Permian and Gulf of Mexico assets are the real workhorses funding this stability. The Venezuela potential is a headline-grabber, but the steady performance in their core basins is what keeps the lights on and dividends flowing."
(Reporting by Sheila Dang in Houston and Vallari Srivastava in Bengaluru; Editing by Nathan Crooks and Edwina Gibbs)