Colombians Vote in Election Shaped by Rising Guerrilla Violence and Deep Divisions Over Peace Strategy
Colombia’s presidential election on Sunday comes at a critical juncture, as guerrilla violence surges to levels not seen in years. Voters face a decisive choice between continuing the current government's embattled “total peace” negotiations or embracing a hard‑right military offensive championed by a pro‑Trump outsider.
Pre‑election surveys placed left‑wing Senator Iván Cepeda in the lead, but he faces a formidable challenge from hard‑right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella, an outsider who has aligned himself with Donald Trump’s brand of politics. The election is widely seen as a referendum on Colombia’s first left‑led government and its signature “total peace” initiative, which sought talks with dissident guerrilla groups.
Analysts argue that armed groups — including guerrilla factions — have exploited those peace overtures to consolidate their positions and ramp up cocaine production to record levels. The campaign period has been marred by car bombings, drone attacks, and the assassination of a prominent presidential candidate, drawing grim comparisons to the darkest chapters of Colombia’s history.
De la Espriella, who calls himself “El Tigre” (The Tiger), has vowed to take on armed groups across air, land and sea — echoing the tough‑on‑crime rhetoric that has propelled right‑wing candidates to power elsewhere in Latin America. “This government has emboldened armed groups by being too lenient,” said Catalina Devia, a 42‑year‑old advertising executive and mother of two, who is weighing the possibility of leaving the country if Cepeda wins. “There’s a real fear that if the left stays in power, the situation will only deteriorate further,” she added.
Fear of a Return to War
Incumbent President Gustavo Petro, constitutionally barred from seeking re‑election, has endorsed Cepeda — the son of a senator assassinated by right‑wing paramilitaries. Supporters of the current administration worry that a right‑wing victory could reignite decades‑long conflict between the state and armed groups. Cepeda’s base draws heavily from lower‑income voters who credit the Petro government with reducing unemployment and raising the minimum wage.
“I’m happy with the path the Petro administration has set,” said Pedro Barragán, a 52‑year‑old teacher casting his ballot in central Bogotá. “We’ve made significant progress in education, environmental protection, social justice, and human rights.”
As expected, if no candidate secures an outright majority on Sunday, a runoff between the top two finishers will take place on June 21. Whoever succeeds Petro will face a tangled web of criminal organizations involved in drug trafficking, illegal mining and extortion — a challenge that has confounded successive governments.
Right‑Wing Rivals
De la Espriella, who models his security approach after El Salvador’s authoritarian President Nayib Bukele and his economic policies after Argentina’s Javier Milei, has promised that guerrillas and drug traffickers will face “either the grave or prison.” Third‑place contender, conservative Senator Paloma Valencia — a close ally of political kingmaker and former President Álvaro Uribe — also advocates a militarized strategy. However, she is also reaching out to centrist voters and women eager to see Colombia elect its first female president.
Polls are open for eight hours, closing at 4:00 p.m. (2100 GMT), with initial results expected around 6:00 p.m. (2300 GMT). Despite an uptick in violence in areas controlled by rebel groups, election day passed relatively peacefully. The government deployed 408,000 security personnel to protect polling stations and voters.
Colombia remains the world’s top cocaine producer, and the drug trade is widely blamed for the worst levels of violence the country has seen in a decade. The assassination last year of right‑wing candidate Miguel Uribe — blamed on a leftist guerrilla group — has heightened fears of a return to the violence that plagued Colombia in the 1990s and 2000s. In late April, a bomb attack on a highway in the southwestern Cauca department killed 21 people, the deadliest assault on civilians in decades. The group responsible later described it as a “tactical error.”
“We need a president who can bring us a little peace of mind, a little tranquility — because right now we’re very anxious,” said María Eugenia Motato, a 57‑year‑old housewife in Suárez, Cauca. “There’s so much conflict.”
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