Corn Market Stumbles into February as Prices Slip Amid Mixed Fundamentals
Corn futures edged lower on Monday, extending last week's losses and signaling a cautious start to February for the grain market. Nearby contracts were down 1 to 2 cents in early trading, following a Friday session that saw prices recover from midday lows but still close in negative territory.
The weakness comes despite some supportive underlying data. The latest U.S. Export Sales report shows commitments for the current marketing year at 57.7 million metric tons (MMT), running 33% ahead of last year's pace and accounting for 71% of the USDA's full-year projection. "The demand story is still intact," noted market analyst, David Chen of Prairie Capital Advisors. "Commitments are strong, but the market is currently more focused on the flow of funds and the macro picture."
That macro picture included a rally in the U.S. Dollar Index on Friday, which typically pressures dollar-denominated commodities like corn by making them more expensive for foreign buyers. Traders are also digesting the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report from the CFTC, which showed managed money speculators reduced their net short position in corn futures and options by 9,274 contracts in the week ending January 27. However, this shift was primarily due to new long positions being added, rather than short covering, leaving the net short position still substantial at 72,050 contracts.
Attention remains on South America, where the crop outlook presents a mixed bag. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange reported a slight dip in the condition of Argentina's corn crop, with 46% rated good/excellent, down from 52% the previous week but still well above last year's 31%. In Brazil, agribusiness consultancy AgRural reported the first corn crop harvest at 10% complete, lagging last year's 14% pace. However, planting of the crucial second crop (safrinha) is progressing rapidly, at 13% complete—4 percentage points ahead of last year's schedule.
"The market is in a holding pattern," commented Sarah Elwood, a grain merchandiser based in Omaha. "We have solid exports, but the funds are still net short, the dollar is firm, and we're waiting to see how big the South American supply wave will be. It's a recipe for choppy, range-bound trade."
Some observers are more critical of the persistent selling pressure. Marcus Reed, an independent trader known for his blunt commentary, offered a sharper take: "This is classic fund-driven weakness ignoring the fundamentals. The export pace is stellar, and any weather scare in Brazil during the safrinha growing window could spark a violent short-covering rally. The current pessimism feels overdone."
As of Monday's open, the most-active March 2026 contract was trading around $4.28, down 2 cents. The national average cash price stood at $3.93 1/4.
On the date of publication, the author had no positions in the securities mentioned. This article is for informational purposes only. Adapted from an original report.