Curreen Capital's 'Ugly Duckling' Strategy Delivers Strong 2025 Returns, Spotlights Frontdoor
Curreen Capital, the investment management firm known for its contrarian "ugly duckling" strategy, capped off a strong 2025 with a fourth-quarter return of 10.5%, bringing its full-year performance to an impressive 30.97%. The firm's annual investor letter, released this week, detailed the performance of its portfolio, which targets fundamentally sound companies trading at discounted valuations.
Among the holdings highlighted was Frontdoor, Inc. (NASDAQ: FTDR), a leading provider of home service plans in the United States. While not a flashy tech name, Frontdoor fits Curreen's ethos of seeking value in overlooked sectors. The stock closed at $59.11 on January 30, 2026, giving the company a market cap of approximately $4.31 billion. Over the past year, its shares have seen a modest gain of 1.58%.
In the letter, Curreen's analysts provided context on Frontdoor's positioning: "Frontdoor represents the type of steady, essential-service business we seek—it's well-managed and operates in a non-cyclical niche. However, it's worth noting that Frontdoor did not make our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. Our data shows 36 hedge funds held the stock at the end of Q3 2025, down slightly from 37 the prior quarter."
The letter also contrasted this pick with the frenzy around artificial intelligence stocks, suggesting that while Frontdoor offers stability, investors seeking explosive growth might look elsewhere. "We acknowledge Frontdoor's potential," the letter stated, "but believe the asymmetric risk/reward profile currently lies in select AI equities, particularly those poised to benefit from broader economic policies like tariffs and onshoring."
Curreen's consistent outperformance raises questions about the sustainability of chasing high-momentum tech stocks versus a disciplined value approach, especially in a potentially volatile market environment.
Investor Reactions
Michael Thorne, Portfolio Manager at Oakcrest Advisors: "Curreen's results speak for themselves. In a market obsessed with AI narratives, they've quietly compounded returns by sticking to basic principles: buy good businesses cheap. Frontdoor is a textbook example—unloved, but generating consistent cash flows."
David Chen, Independent Retail Investor: "A 31% return is fantastic, but it makes me wonder if this 'ugly duckling' phase is ending. As these picks get attention, the value arbitrage disappears. I'm more interested in their hint about AI stocks with tariff tailwinds."
Sarah Fitzpatrick, Financial Blogger at 'The Street Skeptic': "This is a masterclass in marketing mediocre picks. Highlighting a stock with a 1.58% yearly gain while boasting a 31% fund return? It's a distraction. The real story is they're pushing readers to a 'best AI stock' report—probably a paid promotion. The entire letter feels like a slick funnel for their other products."
Arjun Mehta, CFA, University Finance Lecturer: "Curreen's strategy validates that systematic value investing still works. Their mention of declining hedge fund interest in Frontdoor is a nuanced point; sometimes the best opportunities exist when 'smart money' interest wanes slightly. It's a thoughtful counter-cyclical signal."
Disclosure: This analysis is based on publicly available investor letters. It is not investment advice. Readers are encouraged to consult the original Curreen Capital Q4 2025 letter and conduct their own research.