Ethiopia prepares for election expected to bolster Abiy’s grip on power
NAIROBI — Ethiopia will hold parliamentary and regional elections on Monday that analysts expect to hand Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party a decisive victory, despite ongoing unrest in several parts of the country that has already disrupted voting in key regions.
More than 50 million Ethiopians — out of a population of roughly 135 million — are registered to vote. However, balloting will not take place in the northern Tigray region, where the electoral board cited “unfavourable conditions” following the 2020–2022 civil war and continued political instability. The region has yet to hold elections since the conflict ended, underscoring the fragility of the peace deal signed in 2022.
Abiy, 49, who came to power in 2018 after mass protests forced out the long-ruling EPRDF coalition, is seeking to further entrench his control. His Prosperity Party already swept the last parliamentary vote in 2021, securing 410 of 484 seats. The party’s campaign has focused on touting economic gains — including improved food security and growth projections that officials say could top 10% in 2026, one of the fastest rates on the continent.
Nearly half of Ethiopia’s population is under 18, a demographic reality that underpins both the potential for long-term economic dividends and persistent pressures on public services.
Insurgencies cast a shadow over two largest regions
But Abiy’s government faces armed insurgencies in the country’s two largest regions, Oromiya and Amhara, driven by long-standing grievances over perceived marginalization within Ethiopia’s federal system.
In Oromiya, the prime minister’s home region, fighting between government forces and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) separatist group has killed hundreds in recent years. In Amhara, a militia known as Fano has seized large rural areas since 2023, forcing the electoral board to cancel voting in at least eight of the region’s 138 constituencies. The unrest in Amhara marks a sharp turnaround: Fano fighters once fought alongside federal troops during the Tigray war but later turned against the government over plans to disband regional special forces.
Meanwhile, Tigray remains a tinderbox. Though a 2022 peace deal ended the civil war — which researchers say caused hundreds of thousands of deaths — a recent move by the region’s dominant political party to reassert control over its administration has raised fears of renewed violence.
Weak opposition, accusations of crackdowns
The Prosperity Party faces a fragmented and weakened opposition, hamstrung by internal rivalries and, according to critics, government repression. Opposition parties accuse the authorities of arresting leaders and erecting legal barriers to political activity — charges the government denies. Results are expected by June 11.
Reuters has been unable to report from inside Ethiopia since mid-February, when the Ethiopian Media Authority declined to renew accreditation for its three Addis Ababa-based journalists, a move that human rights groups have criticized as part of a broader retreat from press freedom.
Abiy’s early years in office were marked by sweeping reforms: he freed political prisoners, allowed critical media to operate, opened up the tightly controlled economy, and won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for ending a two-decade standoff with neighboring Eritrea. But his tenure has since taken an authoritarian turn, his opponents say, with a crackdown on journalists, civil society groups, and military campaigns accused of atrocities.
The government denies systematic abuses, arguing that its actions are necessary to protect national security.
Relations with Eritrea have also soured. Abiy has repeatedly asserted that landlocked Ethiopia has a “right” to sea access — an existential issue, he says — prompting fears in Asmara of a military threat. Eritrea, which won independence from Ethiopia in 1993, views the comments with alarm. Abiy has said he intends to pursue the matter through dialogue, but the rhetoric has complicated regional stability.
(Reporting by Nairobi Newsroom; Editing by Sharon Singleton)