European nations deepen defense pacts amid rising fears over Russia’s next move

Growing alarm across Europe over Russia’s military trajectory—and a creeping erosion of trust in Washington’s security guarantees—is driving a flurry of new defense alliances among European capitals, reshaping the continent’s strategic landscape.

With Moscow’s war in Ukraine grinding into a protracted stalemate, senior European officials fear the Kremlin may attempt to destabilize the broader region. “The worry is that Russia will try next to reshuffle the cards by expanding the conflict,” one senior European diplomat told The Wall Street Journal, reflecting a view widely shared in defense circles.

Against that backdrop, British Prime Minister and Polish Prime Minister are expected to finalize a bilateral security agreement on Tuesday, a deal meant to deepen coordination on troop deployments, intelligence sharing, and defense industrial capacity. Separately, French officials have signaled interest in joining a German-British program to develop next-generation long-range cruise missiles, a project that could reinforce Europe’s strike capabilities independent of the United States.

Meanwhile, the trilateral fighter jet partnership involving Britain, Italy, and Japan—known as the Global Combat Air Program—may soon expand to include additional partners, according to people familiar with the talks. Swedish Defense Minister, commenting on the broader drive, said: “We need to be focused on strengthening our ability to deter and defend against the Russians. This is not just about today’s war—it’s about the long-term security order.”

Analysts say the flurry of pacts reflects a dual realization: that Europe must invest more heavily in its own defense, and that the post-Cold War assumption of automatic U.S. protection can no longer be taken for granted. The new missile and fighter projects, if realized, would give European militaries longer reach and greater autonomy—potentially reshaping NATO’s internal balance of capabilities.