EU's Revised 2035 Climate Rules Could See Electric Vehicle Sales Drop to 50%, Advocacy Group Warns
BRUSSELS, Feb 3 (Reuters) – The European Union's revised 2035 vehicle emissions proposal could result in electric vehicles (EVs) accounting for as little as 50% of new car sales, a sharp reduction from earlier targets, according to analysis released Tuesday by advocacy group Transport & Environment (T&E). The group criticized the policy shift as the bloc's "biggest retreat from green transport goals in years."
The European Commission, responding to sustained pressure from automakers, proposed in December to require a 90% reduction in CO2 emissions from new cars and vans by 2035 compared to 2021 levels. This replaced an earlier plan for a full 100% cut, which would have effectively banned new internal combustion engine models.
T&E's report projects that under the new framework, EVs are "most likely" to reach an 85% market share by 2035. However, the rules leave a significant loophole: manufacturers could continue selling high-emitting combustion-engine vehicles or efficient plug-in hybrids, potentially pushing the EV share down to 50%. The group estimates a probable non-EV share of 15%, consisting of both conventional and hybrid models.
"This isn't a minor adjustment; it's a calculated step backward," said Klara Schmidt, a Berlin-based policy analyst for T&E. "While the Commission argues this frees up capital for innovation, the reality is it grants a multi-year lifeline to outdated technology just as Chinese automakers are accelerating their EV dominance."
The Commission has defended its proposal, stating it will still drive mass EV adoption while saving the industry an estimated €2.1 billion ($2.5 billion) over three years—funds it says can be redirected toward developing new electric models.
However, the report warns that the cumulative effect, combined with extended timelines to meet 2030 targets, could result in CO2 emissions from cars being 10% higher between 2025 and 2050 compared to the original stricter rules.
Further uncertainty looms as the proposal moves to the European Parliament and the Council of the EU for debate and final approval. T&E cautioned that there is "a tangible risk" of further dilution during legislative negotiations.
Industry voices offered mixed reactions. Marco Ferrara, an automotive engineer in Turin, commented: "The revised targets provide necessary flexibility. A sudden, absolute ban could destabilize the industrial base and hurt employment. This approach allows for a managed transition."
In contrast, Elinor Vance, a climate activist from Stockholm, responded sharply: "It's a betrayal of the EU's Green Deal and a gift to legacy automakers who failed to innovate. We're sacrificing our 2050 climate neutrality pledge for short-term corporate comfort. Future generations will pay the price for this compromise."
Financial analyst David Chen, based in Frankfurt, noted: "The market has already priced in an EV-dominated future. This regulatory softening may offer traditional manufacturers a brief respite, but it does little to alter the long-term competitive threat from China's fully committed EV sector."
The debate underscores the deepening tension between Europe's climate ambitions, industrial policy, and global competitiveness as the 2035 deadline approaches.
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(Reporting by Philip Blenkinsop; Editing by Alexander Smith)