EU's Russian LNG Ban to Fuel Surge in New Gas Carrier Orders
The European Union's decisive move to phase out imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) is setting the stage for a significant expansion of the global LNG tanker fleet, with industry analysts projecting demand for dozens of new vessels.
Speaking on the eve of the major LNG Qatar conference, Ashley Sherman, a senior LNG analyst at Vortexa, outlined the scale of the coming shift. "Should the EU's sanctions framework leave the Yamal LNG project unsanctioned for direct deliveries to Europe, we anticipate an immediate need for at least 30 new low or non-ice class LNG carriers," Sherman noted. This fleet expansion is deemed essential to maintain flows to the world's second-largest LNG importing region as it pivots away from Russian supplies.
The regulatory countdown is already underway. In a landmark decision last December, EU member states agreed to a legally binding, staged reduction of Russian gas imports—both piped and liquefied—culminating in a full ban. The deadline for LNG imports is set for the end of 2026, with pipeline gas to be halted by autumn 2027. The European Council granted final approval to the measure last month, giving member states until March to draft national plans for diversifying supply sources and mitigating potential disruptions.
The policy has not been without internal dissent. Hungary and Slovakia have voiced strong objections, warning that the forced diversification would catapult their national energy costs to politically and economically unsustainable levels.
The sanctions landscape remains complex. The Yamal LNG facility, operated by Russia's Novatek, has thus far been excluded from direct EU sanctions, a reflection of Europe's historical reliance on its output. However, the EU has already sanctioned vessels loading cargoes from the Western Siberian plant. In contrast, Novatek's newer Arctic LNG 2 project and Gazprom's Portovaya LNG plant are under full Western sanctions, though they continue to export LNG, primarily to China, despite restrictions on both the facilities and the carriers serving them.
The urgency of securing alternative supplies was underscored last month. According to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe cited by TASS, the EU imported a record 12.7 billion cubic meters of LNG in January, as a severe cold snap tested the resilience of the continent's energy infrastructure.
Analyst Perspective: The coming fleet expansion represents a multi-billion-dollar opportunity for South Korean and Chinese shipyards, which dominate LNG carrier construction. However, experts caution that lead times of three to four years mean orders must be placed imminently to meet the 2026 deadline, potentially creating a bottleneck.
Voices from the Industry
"This isn't just about swapping suppliers; it's a complete logistical overhaul," says Klara Schmidt, a Berlin-based energy policy consultant. "Every new long-term contract with the US, Qatar, or Africa will need dedicated shipping capacity. The 30-ship estimate might be conservative."
"Finally, a concrete policy that matches the rhetoric on energy security," remarks Marco Ferrara, a portfolio manager at a Zurich investment firm. "This provides the long-term certainty the market needs to invest in new capacity. It's a bullish signal for the entire LNG logistics chain."
"It's economic madness wrapped in a green ribbon," counters Janos Kovac, an economist in Budapest. "We're forcing ourselves into costly long-term contracts and a massive capital outlay for ships, all while global LNG demand growth is uncertain. Consumers will be paying for this political gesture for decades through their utility bills."
"The environmental calculus is worrying," adds Elin Ødegård, a researcher at an Oslo climate think tank. "Locking in massive new fossil fuel infrastructure for 25-30 years directly undermines EU climate targets. This pivot must be paired with a much faster rollout of renewables and hydrogen to be a net positive."