Exclusive: CIA Monitored Iranian Supreme Leader's Routines Ahead of Planned Strike
WASHINGTON/DUBAI – As geopolitical tensions flare, a detailed CIA operation to monitor Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei preceded recent U.S. and Israeli military planning, according to sources familiar with the intelligence assessments. The surveillance, conducted over several months, aimed to pinpoint Khamenei's routines and secure locations, culminating in adjusted strike timing based on intelligence that placed senior Iranian leaders at a Tehran compound last Saturday.
The revelations come amid a volatile backdrop. Former President Donald Trump issued a stark warning to Iran on his Truth Social platform Sunday, stating the U.S. would respond with unprecedented force to any Iranian attack. "THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!" he concluded, amplifying anxieties in energy markets already fixated on the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil supply.
"The strike raises geopolitical risk premia as markets head into Monday's open," Christopher Wong, FX strategist at OCBC in Singapore, told Reuters. Capital Economics economist William Jackson outlined scenarios where Brent crude could surge toward $80 or even $100 a barrel if supply disruptions worsen, potentially adding 0.6–0.7 percentage points to global inflation.
The human and logistical toll is already mounting. Over 700 flights were canceled at Dubai International Airport alone after air corridors closed, impacting carriers like Emirates and United Airlines. Traders are swiftly pricing in the risk of tanker route snarls, with some major houses pausing shipments through the Gulf.
Internally, Iran is preparing for possible conflict. Ayatollah Khamenei has elevated veteran politician Ali Larijani to a crisis-management role, including leadership of the Supreme National Security Council. U.S. intelligence drafts, circulated in Washington recently, mapped multiple potential outcomes for Iran's power structure, noting that IRGC-aligned figures could consolidate control even if the Supreme Leader were removed.
Voices from the Feed:
"Mark R., Security Analyst in D.C.:" "This level of granular intelligence on a head of state is extraordinary. It underscores a shift towards high-precision, decapitation-focused contingency planning, but the regional blowback could be severe."
"Priya V., Commodities Trader in London:" "The market is walking on eggshells. We've seen this movie before—a few days of panic, then a fade. But if a tanker gets hit in the Strait, $100 oil is back on the table overnight."
"Gary T., Veteran in Texas (commenting via social media):" "More shadow games and leaked reports while our leaders post in ALL CAPS. They tracked him for months and then what? This is just theater to scare Tehran and justify next quarter's defense budget. Pathetic."
"Dr. Leila S., Political Science Professor in Beirut:" "The appointment of Larijani is a significant move. It suggests Tehran is preparing for a protracted political and security crisis, not just a military exchange. The internal power calculus is shifting."