Five Storylines to Watch as Florida, Alaska and California Vote Tuesday
WASHINGTON — Voters across Alaska, Florida and California will settle a series of consequential primaries and one special House election on Tuesday, offering an early gauge of the national mood ahead of November's fight for control of Congress. The ballots will test the Democratic Party's ideological fault lines, the strength of AIPAC's lobbying machine and whether Donald Trump's endorsement still moves a Republican primary.
Here are five storylines to watch as the results come in.
Will Democrats find an opening in Alaska?
Alaska hasn't sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since Mark Begich lost his seat to Republican Dan Sullivan in 2014. Democrats think they have a genuine shot at flipping it back. Mary Peltola, a moderate who represented Alaska's at-large House district from 2022 to 2024, is expected to advance comfortably through the state's nonpartisan primary. In November, Alaska's ranked-choice system could help her pick up moderates and independents frustrated with Sullivan, especially if the field narrows to a two-person race.
Sullivan also faces a distraction that hasn't gotten much attention outside Alaska: a Republican challenger named Dan J. Sullivan is on the same ballot, threatening to split some of the senator's name recognition.
Democratic Socialists see a Florida opening
The clash between the Democratic Party's center and left has played out in primaries across the country this year, and Tuesday it moves to Florida. In the 25th Congressional District, which runs along the coast north of Miami, activist Oliver Larkin — backed by the Democratic Socialists of America and a veteran of Bernie Sanders' 2016 presidential campaign — is challenging moderate Representative Jared Moskowitz.
Larkin is campaigning on a $25 federal minimum wage, Medicare for All and a series of structural overhauls, including eliminating the Electoral College and ending the Senate's supermajority requirement. He would not have a direct hand in those constitutional changes if elected; they are long-shot proposals. But they give a clear signal of how far the party's progressive wing wants to push. Moskowitz, for his part, has shown a willingness to work across the aisle through the Problem Solvers Caucus, and the race could offer a read on whether Democratic voters reward that style or prefer a sharper ideological edge.
Can Debbie Wasserman Schultz survive Florida's redrawn map?
Florida Republicans redrew the state's congressional map last spring with one clear goal: maximize GOP pickups. The new lines are projected to put as many as four Democratic-held seats in play. Wasserman Schultz, first elected to Congress in 2004, concluded her old district had become too difficult to defend and opted instead to run in the 20th Congressional District, which has a substantial Black population and has been represented by Black lawmakers for decades.
Her decision did not clear the field. She faces a crowded primary that includes rapper Luther "Uncle Luke" Campbell; former Representative Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, who is fighting criminal charges over alleged theft of disaster relief funds; progressive activist Elijah Manley; and Dale Holness, who has run for the seat twice before. The outcome will be a telling test of incumbency, demographic politics and local name recognition.
AIPAC tests its influence in a California special election
A California special election to fill an open House seat has become a proxy war over the Democratic Party's stance on Israel. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee is spending heavily to defeat Aisha Wahab, a Muslim state senator and Afghan American who has been critical of Israel's military campaign in Gaza. AIPAC has lined up behind Melissa Hernandez, who runs the San Francisco area transit system, and the group is also trying to help Moskowitz across the finish line in Florida.
For all its money, AIPAC has not been unbeatable this year, and Tuesday's results will show whether its focus on Israel policy can move voters in an expensive, off-cycle contest.
Trump's Florida influence faces a test in the governor's race
Former President Donald Trump has put his political capital behind Republican Representative Byron Donalds in the race to succeed term-limited Governor Ron DeSantis, whose relationship with Trump has been testy at times. Donalds has embraced the role of Trump's preferred candidate, and a loss on Tuesday would be a major stumble for the former president at a time when his endorsement is being watched closely across the country.
Recent polling shows Donalds would enter a close November race against former Representative David Jolly, a Republican-turned-Democrat who is competing in the Democratic primary on Tuesday. That matchup, if it materializes, would turn Florida's governor race into a referendum on Trumpism and the direction of the GOP.
Beyond the individual races, Tuesday's voting will provide a clearer picture of the electorate's mood. With control of both chambers of Congress on the line in November, every signal from these three states will be parsed carefully by both parties.