Fox News Poll: Democrats Hold Early 6-Point Lead in 2026 Generic Ballot, Fueled by Cost-of-Living Concerns
With the 2026 midterm elections on the horizon, a new Fox News poll provides an early snapshot of a politically divided electorate, revealing clear partisan strengths and a surprising Democratic advantage in the initial congressional horserace.
The survey, conducted January 23-26, 2026, shows Democrats leading Republicans 52% to 46% in a generic congressional ballot—a six-point edge that marks the highest level of support for either party since Fox News began tracking the measure. This early lead appears closely tied to economic anxieties, with "affordability" ranking as a top voter concern and an area where Democrats hold a significant 14-point advantage in perceived competency.
"While it's very early, this number is a clear warning sign for the GOP," said Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who co-directed the survey. "Generic ballot numbers typically solidify later in the cycle, but Democrats are capitalizing on kitchen-table economic issues right out of the gate."
The poll outlines a nation split along familiar yet deepening fault lines. Republicans maintain perceived advantages on border security (+15 points), national security (+12), and immigration (+5). Meanwhile, Democrats are favored on a suite of social and domestic issues: transgender policies (+22), healthcare (+21), vaccine policy (+16), helping the middle class (+14), and the aforementioned affordability. On taxes, foreign policy, and the federal budget deficit, neither party holds a decisive edge.
Coalition loyalty remains strong. Democrats draw overwhelming support from Black voters (+48), voters under 30 (+28), and college graduates (+17). The Republican base is anchored by White evangelical Christians (+41), rural voters (+21), and White voters without a college degree (+10). However, cross-party defection is asymmetric: 8% of Republicans say they'd back a Democratic House candidate, compared to just 4% of Democrats considering a Republican.
Voter motivation is high, with 76% saying they are "extremely" or "very" motivated to vote—a level on par with the 2022 midterm cycle. This intensity currently favors Democrats, with 82% of Democratic identifiers feeling inclined to vote versus 76% of Republicans.
In a related finding, the poll shows 75% of voters across party lines support a ban on stock trading by members of Congress, their families, and senior staff—a sentiment that has grown since 2022.
Voices from the Electorate:
"These numbers reflect what I see every day—people are struggling to pay bills, and they blame the party that's been obstructing solutions," said Maya Chen, a small business owner from Columbus, Ohio. "The GOP's focus on culture wars is a losing strategy when groceries and rent are the real issues."
"This poll is a wake-up call, not a prediction," noted David Porter, a political science professor at Vanderbilt University. "Historically, the president's party faces headwinds in midterms. If inflation moderates and border concerns remain salient, this landscape could shift dramatically by summer."
"It's absolute nonsense. Fox's sampling is skewed, and everyone knows it," argued Rick Gannon, a retired engineer and conservative talk radio listener from Tampa. "When people get into the voting booth, they're not going to support the party that's soft on crime and wants boys in girls' sports. This is just media hype to demoralize our side."
"The bipartisan support for banning congressional stock trading is the real story here," observed Priya Singh, a legal analyst. "It shows a rare point of consensus: deep public cynicism about the integrity of the institution itself, regardless of which party holds the gavel."
The Fox News survey was conducted by Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) among 1,005 registered voters nationwide and has a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points.