From Gold Bull to Silver Bear: The $3 Billion Trader Betting Against the Rally

(Bloomberg) -- In the high-stakes arena of Chinese commodity trading, a reclusive billionaire is making another audacious move. Bian Ximing, who famously rode gold's historic rally to a near $3 billion gain, is now betting big on a collapse in silver prices, positioning himself as a pivotal—and controversial—figure in the market's recent turmoil.

Based in Gibraltar and shunning publicity, Bian has built the largest net short position in silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), according to a Bloomberg analysis of exchange data and people familiar with the matter. This bearish stance, amounting to roughly 450 tons of the metal, represents a dramatic pivot for a trader long synonymous with bullish precious metals bets.

The gamble carries immense risk. Bian was forced to liquidate some positions at a loss during silver's volatile ascent. However, the metal's sharp correction of over 16% since last week has turned the tide, generating an estimated paper profit of about 2 billion yuan ($288 million) on the short position. Net of earlier losses, his potential profit stands around 1 billion yuan, based on Tuesday's closing prices—a figure likely growing as silver slides further in Thursday's trading.

Exchange data reveals Bian's brokerage, Zhongcai Futures Co., began aggressively increasing silver shorts in late January, precisely as Shanghai prices hit record highs. While SHFE doesn't disclose account holders, sources indicate Bian's personal bets and directly managed client funds constitute the bulk of Zhongcai's precious metals exposure. Both Bian and Zhongcai Futures declined to comment.

Market Context: A Diverging Narrative

Bian's massive short emerges as wild price swings force a market reckoning. While gold maintains its allure as a hedge against uncertainty, silver's parabolic rise is increasingly viewed by analysts as driven more by speculative frenzy and industrial demand narratives than traditional safe-haven fundamentals. This divergence creates the kind of asymmetric opportunity that veteran traders like Bian seek to exploit.

A dominant yet enigmatic figure in China's commodities scene for over two decades, Bian gained notoriety through his early and aggressive gold longs. He cultivates a cult-like following online with his investment philosophy, despite his physical seclusion. His current silver play follows a profitable long position he held last year, from which he began cautiously shifting to shorts in November, seemingly attempting to time the market's peak.

Trader Reactions: A Clash of Perspectives

The market is sharply divided on Bian's latest move.

"This is a masterclass in contrarian positioning," said Michael Chen, a portfolio manager at a Hong Kong-based hedge fund. "He identified a bubble fueled by momentum, not fundamentals. While incredibly risky, his timing, given the leverage involved, appears prescient so far."

Offering a more cautious view, Sarah Wilkinson, an independent metals analyst in London, noted: "Silver's industrial story remains intact. This correction was overdue, but betting against long-term structural drivers is dangerous. Bian is trading volatility, not the underlying trend."

The most scathing critique came from Alexei Rogov, a veteran floor trader. "It's sheer arrogance and luck!" he exclaimed. "This isn't strategy; it's a leveraged gamble that could destabilize the market for smaller players. One government report on solar demand or a shift in Fed rhetoric, and that paper profit evaporates overnight. He's playing with fire."

Bloomberg's profit estimates are based on SHFE daily data and position changes, though exact figures may vary as the exchange does not disclose position costs.