Geron Sees Price Target Cut to $3 by TD Cowen Ahead of Q4, But Buy Rating Stays

TD Cowen has adjusted its outlook on Geron Corporation (NASDAQ: GERN), trimming its price target while reaffirming confidence in the biopharmaceutical firm's long-term trajectory. Analyst Tara Bancroft reduced the target to $3 from $4, maintaining a Buy rating on the stock. The revision, disclosed January 29, precedes the company's upcoming fourth-quarter 2025 financial report and follows an update to the firm's valuation model.

Geron, a commercial-stage oncology-focused company, reported operational strides in its third quarter. The company expanded its commercial reach by adding 150 new ordering accounts, a 15% sequential increase. It also marked a key international milestone with the first shipment of its myelofibrosis drug, RYTELO, to Germany under an early access program. On the clinical front, Geron's Phase 3 trial for relapsed/refractory myelofibrosis is fully enrolled, with an interim analysis anticipated in the latter half of 2026.

However, the path to commercialization presents challenges. Despite the account growth, overall demand for RYTELO dipped by approximately 3% quarter-over-quarter. The company noted that new patient starts were offset by discontinuations in later-line therapies. In response to these headwinds, Geron has initiated a restructuring effort and provided 2026 financial guidance, projecting RYTELO revenue between $220 million and $240 million. The guidance underscores management's aim to steer towards profitability and solidify its commercial footprint in a competitive oncology landscape.

Analyst & Investor Commentary:

"The target cut is a prudent, model-driven adjustment," says Michael Ridge, a portfolio manager at a healthcare-focused fund. "The maintained Buy signal is what matters. Geron's fully enrolled Phase 3 trial is the real value catalyst on the horizon, and the early European access is a positive validation step."

Dr. Anya Sharma, a biotech analyst, offers a more measured take: "The sequential demand dip is a concern that needs monitoring. While the guidance is ambitious, execution is key. The market will be watching the next few quarters closely to see if the restructuring and commercial strategies can translate account growth into sustained prescription volume."

"This feels like kicking the can down the road," argues Leo Crawford, a vocal retail investor on financial forums. "Another price target cut, another 'wait for the data' story. They're guiding for revenue next year but can't show consistent demand growth now? The restructuring sounds like a prelude to more disappointment."

Disclosure: This analysis is based on publicly available information and analyst reports. It is not financial advice.