Global Air Cargo Demand Climbs 3.4% in 2025 as Trade Lanes Realign
The global air cargo sector navigated a year of trade policy upheaval to post a 3.4 percent increase in demand for 2025, according to year-end data released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA). The growth, though moderating from 2024's exceptional 11.3 percent surge, underscores the industry's resilience amid a significant re-routing of global trade flows.
December provided a strong finish, with demand—measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs)—rising 4.3 percent year-over-year. The full-year performance exceeded IATA's mid-year revised forecast but fell short of initial, more optimistic projections.
The headline story of 2025 was the pronounced rotation of major trade corridors. The once-dominant Asia-to-North America lane contracted by 0.8 percent, a direct consequence of shifting U.S. trade policy, including the closure of the de minimis loophole and new tariff impositions. This decline, however, was more than offset by explosive growth elsewhere. Demand within Asia skyrocketed 13.6 percent in December alone, while the Europe-to-Asia corridor saw its strongest December performance since 2016, climbing 12.2 percent.
"The air cargo industry has demonstrated remarkable agility," said Willie Walsh, IATA's Director General. "Carriers and shippers have rapidly adjusted, front-loading shipments ahead of policy changes and pivoting capacity to where demand is hottest—particularly within Asia and on the Europe-Asia link."
This geographic shift has tangible operational impacts. IATA's analysis notes that the strength of intra-Asia traffic favors carriers with dense regional networks, enabling higher aircraft utilization and faster turnaround times. Meanwhile, the trans-Pacific route showed tentative signs of stabilization in the final quarter after six consecutive months of contraction.
Capacity growth, measured in Available Cargo Tonne-Kilometers (ACTKs), slightly outpaced demand at 4.5 percent for December and 3.7 percent for the full year. This expansion was uneven, with Asia-Pacific and African airlines significantly adding capacity, while North American carriers reduced theirs.
Financially, the market continues to normalize from pandemic-era extremes. Average air freight rates declined a modest 1.5 percent for the year to $2.44, the smallest drop in three years, indicating a move toward a more balanced supply-demand equation. Despite competitive pressures, yields remain substantially above pre-pandemic 2019 levels.
Looking ahead, IATA forecasts a slight moderation in CTK growth to 2.6 percent for 2026. "The demand landscape will continue to be sculpted by trade and geopolitical developments," Walsh added. "The constant will be the essential role of air cargo in maintaining resilient supply chains, with airlines designing networks for maximum flexibility."
Industry Voices:
"The data confirms what we've seen on the ground: supply chains are becoming more regionalized and multi-polar. The growth in intra-Asia is not a blip; it's a structural realignment. Carriers with strong regional hubs are best positioned for this new era." — David Chen, Logistics Analyst at Horizon Consultancy.
"This 'recovery' masks a brutal reality for trans-Pacific specialists. Policy shifts enacted by Washington have deliberately crippled a major trade lane, costing jobs and efficiency. It's economic maneuvering disguised as policy, and the global consumer will ultimately pay the price through longer lead times and hidden costs." — Marcus Thorne, former cargo operations director, in a sharply critical op-ed.
"The modest rate decline is the real positive takeaway. It suggests the market is finding a sustainable equilibrium. Combined with lower jet fuel prices, this should help shore up carrier profitability even as growth moderates." — Priya Sharma, Chief Economist, Global Freight Insights.
"For forwarders, 2025 was about agility. Success meant helping clients rapidly diversify routes away from the volatile trans-Pacific. The Europe-Asia and intra-Asia growth presented new opportunities we had to capitalize on quickly." — James Miller, Head of Global Operations at a major freight forwarding firm.