How a ‘Super El Niño’ Could Reshape Latin America’s Food Powerhouse

By Maximilian Heath and Oliver Griffin

BUENOS AIRES/SAO PAULO, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Latin America is bracing for what meteorologists say could be the most powerful El Niño on record, sharpening the focus on how the climate pattern will hit the world's leading food-exporting region.

El Niño, marked by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, upends weather systems across the globe. For Latin America, it often means heavier rains in the south while intensifying dry spells further north — with ripple effects on farming, power grids, shipping lanes and ecosystems.

Already this year, an unusually wet southern winter, shifts in Pacific marine life and dry conditions in parts of the Caribbean and the Amazon are being linked to the phenomenon. Scientists expect it to gain strength from September and possibly surpass the intensity of the 2015-16 event, the strongest since modern record-keeping began.

Here is a closer look at the projected fallout:

CROP WATER, AND TOO MUCH OF IT

In Argentina's fertile Pampas, as well as in Paraguay, Uruguay and southern Brazil, El Niño often delivers above-normal rainfall. While the idea of a “super El Niño” can sound alarming, analysts say that for crops, extra water is generally a plus.

Germán Heinzenknecht, a meteorologist at Argentina's Applied Climatology Consultancy, said that like past cycles, El Niño could lift soybean, corn and wheat output by recharging soil moisture at planting and improving water availability over the December-February summer.

Excess humidity, however, can encourage fungal disease and leach nutrients from fertilized fields.

VULNERABLE INFRASTRUCTURE

A stronger El Niño could also flood some rural areas, though Heinzenknecht noted those are often lands naturally prone to flooding.

Muddy or swamped roads can keep South American farmers from reaching fields, hampering efforts to apply fertilizers and chemicals that protect yields, he said. Many of the region's rural roads across its southern agricultural heartlands are already in poor shape.

Heavy rains from September onward could also flood cities and transport corridors to ports. Paraguay's government has already put military units on alert and mobilized civilian engineering teams since July.

Peru's northern coast faces flooding while highlands contend with water scarcity — a pattern likely to be repeated in Chile and elsewhere along the Pacific coast, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization.

Warmer seas are also pushing commercial fish species into deeper waters, trimming catches. That shift has already hurt Peru's fishing industry, with activity down 31% in the first five months of the year.

ENERGY OPPORTUNITIES

Uneven rainfall could turn out to be a windfall for Argentina's expanding energy export sector.

Hotter, drier conditions forecast for northern and western Brazil could increase demand for Argentine natural gas to fuel thermal power plants, according to the Latin American and Caribbean Energy Organization (OLADE).

Southern Brazil and northeastern Argentina, by contrast, should see sharply higher rainfall, swelling the Paraná River and enabling greater use of hydroelectric dams along its course. In July, rainfall across hydroelectric basins in southern Brazil reached 256% of the long-term average, according to grid operator ONS.

“Every El Niño tells a different story,” said Leydson Dantas, a specialist at Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology. He added that a month's worth of rain can sometimes fall in parts of central-western and southeastern Brazil within a single week.

WATERWAYS AT RISK

Drier conditions expected in northern Brazil threaten the Amazon basin's vast river network — a key transport corridor for the world's largest soybean exporter.

Forecasts also point to increasing drought risk, extreme heat and wildfires across Brazil, Colombia and Venezuela, endangering crops and livestock production.

Further north, the Panama Canal Authority — the operator of the critical global trade route — is tightening restrictions on ship loads to conserve fresh water needed for the canal. Forecasters warn of a drought that could match, or exceed, the severity of the 2023-2024 El Niño-triggered dry spell.

The authority has been gradually lowering maximum vessel drafts because a planned new reservoir to secure water supply for the canal and the country's population will not be ready in time. Lower drafts force ships to cut cargo weights, raising shipping costs and raising the risk of trade disruptions.

Panama is among the wettest countries in the world, so declining rainfall there is a telling sign of regional drought. The authority says it does not expect to reduce daily transit slots unless strictly necessary. Competition for passage is already building, with last-minute slot auctions fetching millions of dollars as some vessels look for alternative routes, even as security tensions near the Suez Canal complicate those options.

(Reporting by Maximilian Heath in Buenos Aires and Oliver Griffin in Sao Paulo; additional reporting by Marianna Parraga in Houston. Editing by Lucinda Elliott, Christian Plumb, Rod Nickel)