Iceland’s EU Referendum Too Close to Call as Counting Continues
Iceland’s referendum on whether to revive European Union membership talks was hanging by a thread early Sunday, with official counts showing the result could go either way.
With 153,197 ballots counted out of roughly 270,000 eligible voters, public broadcaster RUV reported 50.1% opposed to resuming accession negotiations and 49.9% in favor — a gap of just 435 votes. The slim margin underlined how deeply divided the island nation remains over its relationship with Europe more than a decade after the application was shelved.
Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir’s centre-left government had promised a referendum by 2027 but moved it up as geopolitical tensions escalated, including President Donald Trump’s renewed interest in Greenland. Yet for many Icelanders, the debate turned less on security than on the future of the country’s fishing industry, which accounts for nearly 40% of exports.
Iceland is already part of the EU’s single market and the Schengen border-free area. Full membership would bring it into the customs union and eventually the euro zone. Reykjavik first applied to join in 2009 after the financial crisis shattered its banking system, but talks stalled in 2013 under a eurosceptic government. Fishing rights were the main sticking point then, and they remain at the heart of the current campaign.
Many No voters fear that joining the EU’s common fisheries policy would mean surrendering control of the lucrative waters around Iceland. Supporters argue that accession would diversify the economy and strengthen the country’s voice in European affairs, while taking nothing off the table in future negotiations. The ballot question put to voters was: “Should Iceland resume accession negotiations with the European Union?”
A Yes vote would not automatically start membership talks or make Iceland a candidate in practice; it would only instruct the government to reopen its application. Any final accession agreement would still require approval in a second referendum. A No vote, similarly, would not legally block future governments from revisiting the issue.
Security concerns also shadowed the vote. Iceland is a founding member of NATO but maintains no standing military and depends on allies for territorial defence. It has supported Ukraine throughout Russia’s full-scale invasion, while officials have voiced alarm over increased Russian maritime activity near the island. Trump’s comments about Greenland have also heightened worries about Arctic security and Iceland’s strategic position.
Frostadóttir called Saturday “a great day” after casting her ballot, saying the vote was years in the making. “We’ve been waiting for this for a long time,” she said. Her government has said it will continue its work regardless of the outcome, but a narrow result could leave the EU question unsettled — and potentially return to the political agenda sooner than many expect.