Iran Signals Low Likelihood of Return to Full-Scale War With US, but Warns of Readiness
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Wednesday that the prospect of a renewed full-scale war with the United States remains low, yet signaled that Tehran’s armed forces are primed to retaliate against any attack — a reflection of the fragile calm that has held since a U.S.-Iran ceasefire took effect in April.
Speaking to the semi-official Tasnim news agency, Mohammad Akbarzadeh, deputy political chief of the IRGC Navy, stated that “the likelihood of a return to war is low because of the enemy’s weakness, but the armed forces are lying in wait with full magazines.” He added that Iran would turn the coastline into “a graveyard for aggressors” if provoked.
The remarks came a day after Tehran accused Washington of breaching the ceasefire — the most serious violations since the truce began — following a wave of U.S. airstrikes that Iran described as a “gross violation.” The U.S. military characterized those strikes as self-defense, offering few details.
War of Words and Stalled Talks
The war, which erupted in late February when the U.S. and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran, has since ballooned into a multi-front conflict drawing in proxy forces and rattling global energy markets. Mediation efforts led by Pakistan have so far failed to bridge gaps on core issues: Iran’s nuclear program and the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
In a bid to pressure the U.S., Iran blockaded the strait — a chokepoint for about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply — prompting a U.S. counterblockade of Iranian ports. On Wednesday, the IRGC Navy insisted that only vessels “willing to abide by Iranian order” would be permitted passage through the waterway.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday that a peace deal remained within reach, but that the strait “will be reopened one way or the other.” The tough rhetoric has kept oil markets on edge, though prices eased Wednesday after fresh hopes for diplomatic progress. International benchmark Brent North Sea crude dropped 5% to $94.61 a barrel, still well above pre-war levels.
Spy Games and Sabotage Fears
Iran’s Intelligence Ministry separately alleged that the U.S. and Israel continue to pursue regime change and the partition of Iran. The ministry claimed to have evidence that Washington and Tel Aviv plan to smuggle weapons, ammunition, and satellite internet devices — especially Starlink terminals — into Iran to stoke religious and ethnic divisions and carry out sabotage operations.
On the home front, Iranian authorities partially restored access to the global internet on Tuesday after a three-month shutdown. For many Iranians, the reprieve is welcome but uncertain. “I do feel better now because I finally can use my favorite applications,” said Hana, a 20-year-old student in Tehran. “At the same time, I have this concern that war might resume any minute and just cut me off again from my friends.”
Amir, a 27-year-old software developer, echoed the anxiety: “I feel like nothing is certain yet, even though the ceasefire is still ongoing and there is news of a possible agreement. But the daily question is, will there be missile strikes tonight?”
Lebanon Front Intensifies
Iran has demanded that any final peace accord also apply to Lebanon, where an April 17 truce has failed to stop fighting between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah. On Tuesday, Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon killed at least 31 people, including four children, according to Beirut’s health ministry. An AFP correspondent at a strike site near Tyre saw rescue workers pulling a white body bag from rubble littered with household debris.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed Monday to “crush” Hezbollah. An Israeli military official told AFP the following day that ground operations were expanding deeper into Lebanon. Hezbollah said its fighters clashed with Israeli forces “at point-blank range” on Wednesday in a strategically important town north of the Litani River, just beyond a line where Israeli troops have been operating.
Supreme Leader’s Warning
Marking the start of the Eid al-Adha holiday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei declared in a written statement that the United States was losing its influence in the Middle East. He warned regional states against hosting bases from which the U.S. could launch attacks, adding that Washington “in addition to no longer having any safe haven in the region for aggression and the establishment of military bases, is moving further and further away from its former position with each passing day.”
Despite the lowered risk of all-out war, the region remains on edge — caught between diplomatic overtures and the daily reality of missile alerts, blockaded shipping lanes, and simmering proxy conflicts.