Iran War at 100 Days: Winners, Losers and the Unfolding Geopolitical Fallout
It may still be too early to declare a clear victor, but as the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran reaches the 100-day mark on Sunday, early winners and losers have already upended pre-war expectations.
Political and business leaders often celebrate their first 100 days in office as a benchmark for swift achievements. This war, however, has brought a far grimmer scorecard: up to 2,211 killed, more than 22,000 injured, and over 3.9 million displaced, according to missile strikes.com, though figures vary depending on the source.
In just over three months, the conflict has spread to Lebanon, upended global energy markets, drawn Iranian retaliation across the Gulf, and severely tested Washington’s standing in the region. Questions abound over who has gained and who has lost so far.
The war began on February 28 when the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran, an operation President Donald Trump said would be over “quickly.” Early strikes targeted Iranian air-defense systems, missile launchers and naval assets, and included the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top officials. That initial success emboldened Trump to speak of a regime on the verge of collapse.
Iran’s infrastructure has sustained extensive damage, and the combined U.S.-Israeli attacks have further destabilized its already struggling economy. Critical energy exports have slumped after the U.S. imposed a blockade on April 13 on ships entering and exiting Iranian ports. Yet the regime remains in place, and Trump has since moderated his earlier calls for Iranians to overthrow the government, with his administration now stressing the goal of preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
Iran has, however, imposed heavy economic costs on Israel and the Gulf states, damaged U.S. bases and missile-defense assets in the region, and forced Israel, the U.S. and Gulf allies to deplete offensive and defensive munitions that are slow to replenish. Tehran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz — through which one-fifth of the world’s hydrocarbons transit — and handed temporary control of that critical waterway to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps through an unofficial toll system.
Meanwhile, Trump’s repeated claims that a deal is near are regularly dismissed by Iran. Doubts are growing over whether the war has actually degraded Tehran’s ability to build a nuclear bomb. Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said Friday that access for inspectors remains limited. The same day, senior Iranian cleric Mohammad‑Mehdi Hosseini Hamedani restated Tehran’s position that its nuclear technology and uranium enrichment are not negotiable.
Much depends on whether a final agreement can be struck. “America’s national security and our reputation are on the line,” said Len Khodorkovsky, a former deputy assistant secretary of state for digital strategy, speaking to Newsweek last week after Tehran and Washington reportedly reached a tentative deal to extend the ceasefire by 60 days and begin new nuclear talks. “Allowing a weak and broke regime to survive — and resurrect its nuclear program at the earliest opportunity, even if that’s after President Trump leaves office — will undoubtedly haunt us. It will be much harder and much costlier to deal with a richer and stronger regime later.” Khodorkovsky supports Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi’s calls for empowering Iranians against the regime.
China, which buys 90 percent of Iran’s crude oil exports and serves as its most important trading partner, has seen its influence grow. Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s calls for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz carry more weight than Trump’s appeals. As facilities across the Gulf continue to face Iranian attacks, the U.S. role as the region’s dominant protector appears to be waning, potentially giving Beijing a new opportunity to shape the Middle East order.
During Trump’s state visit to Beijing last month, he said he discussed Iran with Xi and that both agreed Iran must not obtain a nuclear weapon and must reopen the strait. Allen Carlson, a China foreign policy expert and associate professor of government at Cornell University, told Newsweek that the symbolism and lack of substantive agreements from the Trump-Xi summit were telling: “In terms of optics over the past three weeks, Xi has been able to present himself as a kingmaker on the world stage. Xi and China are in a stronger position, especially when it’s implicitly contrasted with the strategic incoherence of Washington’s approach to the world today.”
Still, there is uncertainty about the economic impact on China. Pork prices — a bellwether for inflation and consumer confidence — plunged last month. Carlson noted that China’s economic fundamentals were already shaky before the conflict, but the country has weathered the external shock better than most. “Xi might even be kind of playing up the world-stage aspect because the domestic political and economic concerns are much more difficult to address,” he said.
The Iran war has also diverted attention from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, where Kyiv had already faced dwindling support from the Trump administration. As energy markets roiled, the U.S. temporarily eased sanctions on Russian oil — originally imposed over the invasion — raising concerns of a short-term boon for Moscow. Prices for Russia’s Urals oil tripled, boosting energy revenues by as much as $10 billion per month, according to Bloomberg, which reported that in the week ending April 5, Russian oil export revenues hit their highest levels since June 2022, four months after the invasion.
Ukraine, however, has managed to benefit from its experience countering Iranian-designed Shahed drones used by Russia, offering its expertise to the U.S. and its Gulf partners now under fire. “Ukraine has come out of this Middle East conflict a bit stronger with new partnerships in the Gulf and its ability to demonstrate that it has the leading edge in drone and counter-drone capabilities that have now piqued interest in Washington,” said Zev Faintuch, head of research and intelligence at Global Guardian, a security and intelligence firm. “So it has new cards with Washington and new benefactors in the Gulf. Ukraine has come out stronger from the war. It probably means that Russia has come out of this a bit weaker.”
Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz spiked global benchmark Brent crude to around $96 a barrel from a pre-war level of $71, with prices regularly exceeding $100 over the past three months — hurting American consumers at the pump. Russell Shor, senior market analyst for FXCM, said the biggest impact has not been a major loss of supply but rather an increase in the geopolitical risk premium attached to oil prices. “Investors have had to reassess the risk of disruption around the Strait of Hormuz,” he told Newsweek. While the conflict has supported prices and increased volatility, the market has adjusted through alternative supply sources, inventory management and changing demand expectations. “The energy market has certainly felt the impact of the war, but the bigger challenge has been uncertainty rather than a complete breakdown in supply. Oil markets depend on reliable flows, and the conflict has highlighted how quickly geopolitical events can change the outlook. Even if a peace deal is reached, investors are unlikely to completely ignore the risks that have been exposed.”
Lebanon has paid an especially high price. The war widened on March 2 when Tehran-backed Hezbollah fired rockets from Lebanese territory into northern Israel. The government in Beirut does not control Hezbollah, and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) responded by targeting fighters south of the Litani River. The IDF now operates well beyond that line, issuing evacuation orders as far north as the Zahrani River, 6 miles north of the Litani. There are fears that Israel’s presence in 20 percent of Lebanon could become a permanent occupation, similar to the two-decade occupation that ended in 2000.
Nasser Khdour, Middle East assistant research manager at the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), told Newsweek that by capturing strategic vantage points like the Beaufort Ridge and Wadi Saluki, Israeli forces are attempting to establish a robust physical buffer zone. Hezbollah has intensified its attacks, launching in May more than 260 drone, rocket and anti-tank missile strikes — the highest monthly total since the war began.
Bassel Doueik, ACLED’s Lebanon and Jordan researcher, said the Beirut government’s inability to assert itself has weakened its position, marginalized the Lebanese Armed Forces and deepened internal sectarian divisions. “After 100 days of war, Lebanon finds itself in a highly precarious position,” Doueik said.
ACLED recorded nearly 270 property destruction events between March 2 and June 1. Lebanon’s finance ministry estimates at least $3 billion in wartime damage. The Lebanese Health Ministry reports at least 3,500 killed and 10,600 injured since the war began, creating a severe humanitarian crisis. The Israeli military has ordered the south’s population to head north in its largest evacuation order yet, and the widespread destruction has sparked fears for the 1.2 million displaced people wondering what they might return to.
“People have not even tried to go back because they know that they cannot go — the destruction is massive,” Aline Kamakian, who provides meals through the charity World Central Kitchen (WCK), told Newsweek. WCK has served more than 2 million meals in Lebanon at 13 sites, including the hardest-hit southern areas, where needs remain acute, access is increasingly difficult and villages continue to be evacuated. Kamakian said that after an initial ceasefire on April 16, some people tried to go back but most returned to shelters within three days. “Everybody discovered the destruction that happened to their villages and to their houses.”
Israel’s aim, beyond destroying Iran’s nuclear capability, was to degrade the Islamic Republic’s proxy groups. “Israel’s aim, which may have been a bit lofty, was to facilitate the conditions by which the Iranian people can rise up,” Faintuch said. “That hasn’t happened yet, but that’s something that’s going to be judged on a much longer time scale.” He noted that Israel has hit Iran’s proxies hard, eliminating up to 3,000 Hezbollah fighters since the war started — and around 8,000 since the fight against Hezbollah began after the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023. “So certainly, Israel has come out much stronger against Hezbollah in the last 100 days,” he said.
On June 3, the United States, Israel and Lebanon issued a joint statement calling for a ceasefire provided Hezbollah halts all attacks and evacuates its fighters south of the Litani River. But the Institute for the Study of War said on June 4 that Hezbollah and Iranian leaders continue to reject any ceasefire framework that does not include total Israeli capitulation in Lebanon.
“Iran has been able to form a pretty strong linkage between negotiations with the United States and the situation in Lebanon,” Faintuch said. “I don’t think we can say that Israel is necessarily stronger than it was before, but it’s certainly not weak, and ultimately everything’s really going to be determined by a final outcome.”
Doueik added that Israel’s strategy in Lebanon diverges from the broader U.S. approach toward Iran and its proxies. “Rather than treating the Lebanon front as part of the Iranian conflict, Israel is trying to decouple the two conflicts. The decoupling, if successful, aids the Israeli administration in extracting important concessions from the Lebanese government and Hezbollah.”