Iran’s Strait of Hormuz Gambit: Attacks Aim to Reassert Control, Analysts Say

Iran’s attack on a cargo ship, followed by strikes on U.S. military installations in Bahrain and Kuwait, appears designed to reassert Tehran’s control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz and compel Gulf states to recognize that authority, analysts said.

The escalation may also serve as a warning to other Gulf nations: supporting Washington’s efforts to undermine Iran’s claim to power in the waterway could invite military retaliation, according to a situation assessment published Saturday by the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The Iranian attack, carried out Thursday, drew a swift U.S. response—American forces struck Iranian targets despite a ceasefire that was still nominally in place. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) characterized its strikes on neighboring Gulf states as retaliation for the new U.S. strikes, accusing Washington of violating the existing framework agreement and the ceasefire terms. Under that accord, the IRGC argued, both sides had reached arrangements to manage shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

The interim agreement between Washington and Tehran “deliberately relied on flexible wording because this was probably the only way to get it concluded,” Nicole Grajewski, a researcher at Sciences Po in Paris, told the New York Times. But that ambiguity, she added, has left both sides scrambling to create facts on the ground in their own favor before a final agreement nails down the details. “Flexibility only holds while both sides attach similar meanings to the same vague provisions,” she noted.

For Tehran, influence over the strait is at stake

The Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint for roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil shipments—has long been a powerful lever for Iran, particularly during the war. Now, that leverage is being tested. Gregory Brew, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group, wrote on X that the U.S. and Gulf states have been pushing forward with efforts to guide ships through the strait without direct coordination with Iran. Tehran, he argued, is probing how far it can go in the current environment to reassert its authority.

“If some minimal military action is enough to close the Omani route and move shipping into lanes Iran can control, why not give it a shot?” Brew wrote. The risks, he added, remain low as long as Iran can trust that the U.S. will not revert to a more aggressive posture.

The broader context: The Strait of Hormuz is a vital artery for global energy markets, and any disruption—even a limited one—can ripple through oil prices and regional security dynamics. Iran’s latest moves come amid a fragile ceasefire that both sides have interpreted differently, raising the prospect of further escalation unless a more detailed agreement is reached.