Is International Paper’s Stock Finally a Bargain After the Sell-Off?
International Paper (NYSE: IP) has been under heavy selling pressure for much of the past year. Shares closed at $33.52 on Wednesday, reflecting a 24.45% decline over the last three months and a 20.63% total shareholder loss over the trailing twelve months. While a one-day bounce of 5.21% offered a brief reprieve, the broader trend still points to fading momentum rather than a durable turnaround.
Yet beneath the surface, the valuation picture has shifted. According to Simply Wall St’s fair value model, IP is currently trading at a significant discount to an estimated intrinsic value of $46.47 — a gap of roughly 28%. That narrative hinges on moderate revenue growth, a sharp improvement in margins, and a forward earnings multiple that assumes cleaner, higher-quality profits.
Still, not everyone is convinced the stock is a steal. The company continues to wrestle with chronic mill reliability issues and volatility in key containerboard markets — two factors that could easily derail the optimistic fair value story.
“The numbers look good on paper, but the execution has been shaky,” said Michael Torres, a portfolio manager at a mid-cap value fund. “If they can’t keep their mills running smoothly, the margin expansion everyone is banking on just won’t happen.”
Others are more blunt. Linda Park, a retail investor and former packaging industry analyst, called the current valuation “a value trap in disguise.” She added: “This stock has been ‘undervalued’ for months. Every time it bounces, it gets hammered again. I’d rather wait for actual earnings improvement than chase a theoretical fair value.”
On the other side, James Harlow, a financial advisor in Chicago, sees opportunity. “If you believe the packaging cycle is bottoming and management can fix the operational issues, this is a classic turnaround play. The risk is real, but so is the upside.”
For investors weighing the trade-offs, the key will be watching whether IP can deliver on its operational targets in the coming quarters — or whether the market’s skepticism proves more durable than the company’s recovery plan.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.