Israel-Hezbollah Disarmament Deal Casts Shadow Over Fragile U.S.-Iran Peace Process
An agreement signed four days ago between Israel and Lebanon, which ties an Israeli military withdrawal from southern Lebanon to the disarming of the Iran-backed Hezbollah group, may effectively keep Israeli troops in the neighboring country indefinitely, according to regional analysts. That scenario, they say, could further complicate already fragile efforts to reach a comprehensive U.S.-Iran peace deal.
Hezbollah has so far refused to lay down its weapons, and the Lebanese government has been unable—or unwilling—to force the well-armed militant group to do so. “This is not an agreement, it is an imposed settlement,” a senior Lebanese politician told Reuters on condition of anonymity, adding that Lebanon’s army is simply incapable of disarming Hezbollah. Michael Young, a Beirut-based analyst, said the agreement “creates a structure that allows the Israelis to remain indefinitely.” Fawaz Gerges, a Lebanese scholar at the London School of Economics, called the deal “born dead,” arguing it effectively hands Israel a pretext to expand its occupied “security zone” in southern Lebanon.
Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli military intelligence officer, told Reuters that the dismantling of Hezbollah is “something that would never happen,” and the deal legitimizes an indefinite Israeli military presence in Lebanon. He predicted that no Israeli prime minister would halt operations against Hezbollah while the group still poses a threat: “Nothing will happen. Israel won’t withdraw, and Hezbollah won’t dismantle.”
Meanwhile, Iran and Hezbollah have repeatedly insisted that any full peace deal between Washington and Tehran must include a complete Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon. The standoff has added fresh uncertainty to already fragile U.S.-Iran negotiations, which in recent weeks have yielded a preliminary memorandum of understanding but no final agreement.
On Monday, President Trump offered a skeptical assessment of the next planned round of talks in Doha, telling reporters, “The meeting in Doha is going to be perhaps important, perhaps not.” Iran’s foreign ministry responded by saying that an expert delegation would travel to Qatar this week—but only to discuss implementation of the MoU, not to hold direct talks with U.S. officials. “We have not yet entered the stage of negotiating a final agreement,” said foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei. “Over the coming days, we will not have any negotiation meetings with the U.S. side at any level.”
The mixed signals come as Iran prepares for the state funeral of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country’s late supreme leader who was killed in U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on the first day of the war, Feb. 28. His body will lie in state at Tehran’s Grand Mosalla complex beginning Saturday, with officials expecting 15 to 20 million mourners—potentially the largest funeral in Iran’s history. Workers were seen applying fresh paint and erecting metal structures at the venue, while state television urged mourners to use public transport. The funeral had been delayed due to the conflict, but is now proceeding under a fragile ceasefire.
On the economic front, the war has already cost American households roughly $1,000 each in higher fuel, food, and other expenses since February, according to Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi. The consumer price index hit a three-year high in May, as the conflict continues to push up global oil prices. Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told CBS News that commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is unlikely to return to pre-war freedom. “Iran has their hands all over them,” Miller said, “and they’re going to seek remuneration to use those straits, weaponizing geography basically as leverage.”
Wall Street stocks were mixed in early Tuesday trading, with the S&P 500 up about 0.1% after gaining nearly 9% in the first half of 2026—driven largely by the AI boom rather than any optimism about the Middle East. “For the most part the equity market shrugged off the war and focused primarily on earnings,” said Jack Ablin of Cresset Capital.
On the diplomatic front, U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Tuesday with Qatari mediators, though Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesman said no direct U.S.-Iran talks were scheduled. The emirate has been a key intermediary, having initially refused to mediate after Iran launched aerial attacks on Gulf states in retaliation for the Feb. 28 strikes, but it resumed its role after Pakistan brokered an initial April ceasefire.
In a separate development, attackers shot dead two members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards at their home in the western city of Paveh near the Iraqi border. State media blamed “Zionist-American mercenaries,” though no group immediately claimed responsibility. Another attack in the southeastern town of Saravan killed a father and wounded his wife, who later died; authorities said the assailants were linked to separatist groups.
Eleven historical buildings in Iran have been damaged during the war, according to Reuters, despite UNESCO having shared coordinates of heritage sites with all parties to the conflict. UNESCO called on all sides to respect international law protecting cultural property—an appeal complicated by President Trump’s decision to pull the U.S. out of the organization for the second time in 2025.
As the U.S. and Iran continue to navigate their fragile ceasefire, the intertwined disputes over Hezbollah, Israeli occupation of Lebanese territory, and the release of $6 billion in frozen Iranian assets in Qatar remain unresolved. “If we ever unfreeze Iranian assets, we can ensure that money goes to help the people of Iran and not to fund terrorism,” Vice President JD Vance said last week. But Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesman confirmed Tuesday that no funds have been transferred yet, adding that the process depends on the progress of negotiations—which have yet to take place.