Khamenei Warns U.S. Attack on Iran Would Ignite Wider Regional Conflict
TEHRAN – In a defiant speech marking the anniversary of Iran’s Islamic Revolution, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned the United States on Sunday that an attack on the Islamic Republic would trigger a broader regional conflict, as he framed recent domestic unrest as a foreign-backed "coup" attempt.
Addressing a large crowd commemorating the return of the revolution's founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the 86-year-old leader accused Washington of seeking to "devour" Iran’s vast oil and natural gas reserves. "They should know that if they start a war this time, it will not remain limited. It will be a regional war," Khamenei stated, in a direct response to the U.S. military buildup in the Middle East.
The speech intertwined external threats with internal challenges, as Khamenei labeled the widespread anti-government protests that erupted in late December as a "sedition" akin to a coup. He claimed the protesters, whom authorities blame on "terrorists" armed by the U.S. and Israel, targeted police, government buildings, and mosques with the aim of overthrowing the state.
International observers and human rights groups, however, paint a starkly different picture. They report that the demonstrations, initially sparked by economic despair, evolved into a nationwide outcry over social freedoms and environmental crises. A United Nations special rapporteur has suggested the death toll from the state crackdown may exceed 20,000, a figure vehemently disputed by Tehran, which officially acknowledges around 3,000 fatalities.
In a brief response to Khamenei's warning, former U.S. President Donald Trump expressed a preference for diplomacy. "Hopefully we’ll make a deal," he told reporters. "If we don’t make a deal, then we’ll find out whether or not he was right."
The internal and external pressures appear to be pulling the Iranian government in conflicting directions. In a move seemingly aimed at placating public discontent, authorities sent text messages to citizens announcing that women would soon be allowed to ride motorcycles—a small concession in a nation with strict social codes. Simultaneously, hardline lawmakers in parliament donned military uniforms to chant "Death to America," a show of force following the European Union's designation of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization.
The IRGC, a powerful military and economic entity born from the revolution, condemned the EU's move, stating it hinders "constructive engagement." Meanwhile, state media continues its narrative, broadcasting programs that condemn the "riots" and, in one controversial instance, mocked the protesters—a move that led to public outrage and the firing of a TV channel director.
"They are only throwing more salt on our wounds," a young student in Tehran told Al Jazeera anonymously. "They say all our youth were killed by terrorists, then go ahead and mock the people who laid down their lives on state television."
As the government prepares for large pro-state rallies on February 11, the deep fissures within Iranian society and its escalating standoff with the West suggest a volatile path ahead, where any miscalculation could indeed risk the wider war Khamenei predicted.
Reactions & Analysis
Dr. Anahita Rasouli, Political Analyst at University of Tehran: "The Supreme Leader's speech is a classic strategy of conflating external threats with internal dissent to consolidate the revolutionary base. The regional war warning is less a prediction and more a deterrent, signaling to Washington that the cost of conflict would be unacceptably high for all involved."
Marcus Johnson, Former U.S. State Department Official: "This is a precarious moment. Khamenei is boxing himself in with rhetoric that leaves little room for de-escalation. The internal crackdown and the EU's IRGC designation are closing off diplomatic channels, making unintended escalation a real danger."
Roya Karimi, Exiled Iranian Journalist & Activist (Sharply Critical): "It's grotesque. While Khamenei threatens 'regional war' to protect his regime, his security forces have already waged a brutal war on their own people. The world hears his warnings against the U.S., but remains deaf to the screams of thousands murdered in the streets. This isn't about nationalism; it's about the survival of a theocratic mafia."
David Chen, Security Studies Researcher, Singapore: "The economic motivations cited by Khamenei should not be dismissed. In a world grappling with energy security, Iran's resources are a strategic prize. The U.S. military posture and Iran's response follow a familiar pattern of resource competition layered over ideological conflict."