Las Vegas Sands Shares Plunge 14% on Macau Weakness, Casting Shadow Over Recovery Hopes

Shares of casino operator Las Vegas Sands Corp. (NYSE: LVS) tumbled nearly 14% in Thursday's trading session, marking one of the day's steepest declines on the New York Stock Exchange. The sell-off was a direct response to investor disappointment with the company's full-year financial results from Macau, a critical profit center that continues to feel the aftershocks of Beijing's campaign against high-stakes gambling.

The stock closed at $52.71, down 13.96%, as the market focused on a 0.7% dip in Macau's adjusted property EBITDA for the full year 2025, which came in at $2.31 billion. This overshadowed stronger quarterly figures, including a 6.5% year-on-year jump in Q4 Macau EBITDA to $608 million and a 16% surge in Q4 Macau revenues to $2.06 billion.

"We are disappointed with that EBITDA number," acknowledged CEO Robert Goldstein during an analyst call, striking a cautious tone despite broader corporate gains. For the full year, Las Vegas Sands reported a 12% rise in attributable net income to $1.63 billion and a 15% increase in net revenues to $13 billion.

The reaction highlights the market's heightened sensitivity to Macau's performance. The former Portuguese enclave, once a magnet for mainland China's VIP gamblers, has been undergoing a profound transformation. A multi-year crackdown by Chinese authorities on capital outflows and "cross-border gambling" has drastically reshaped the revenue mix, forcing operators like Sands to rely more on mass-market tourists and non-gaming amenities. While revenues are recovering, profitability metrics like EBITDA reveal the pressure on margins during this transition.

Analysts suggest the steep drop may reflect concerns that Macau's post-pandemic recovery is plateauing sooner than expected, or that the costs of adapting to the new, less VIP-reliant business model are proving persistent. The sell-off also casts a shadow over the sector's broader narrative of a steady rebound.

Michael Chen, Portfolio Manager at Horizon Capital: "The market is sending a clear message: it's not just about top-line growth anymore. The EBITDA miss in Macau signals that the path to restoring pre-crackdown profitability levels is steeper and more costly than anticipated. Investors are re-pricing the recovery story."

Sarah Wilkins, Travel Industry Analyst: "The numbers show the successful pivot to mass-market is real—revenue growth is strong. But Thursday's reaction is a reminder that this segment is less lucrative per visitor. The long-term bet on concerts, exhibitions, and family travel is the right one, but it requires patience and deep pockets."

David Miller, Editor at 'The Bearish Brief': "A 0.7% dip gets you a 14% haircut? That's not an overreaction; that's the market finally waking up to the permanent impairment of the Macau cash cow. The golden goose is gone. These results expose the 'recovery' as a low-margin mirage built on hotel rooms and buffet dinners, not baccarat. Management's disappointment should be shareholders' alarm."

Lisa Wang, Macau-based Hospitality Consultant: "The volatility is harsh, but on the ground, the vibe is positive. The floors are busy, just with a different crowd. The challenge for Sands and others is operational excellence—maximizing spend from every family and convention-goer. That's the new game in town."

As Las Vegas Sands navigates this new era, the immediate future hinges on its ability to demonstrate that its integrated resort model can deliver sustainable and growing profits under Macau's transformed regulatory and economic landscape.