Latvian PM’s United List alliance set for decisive election win, exit poll shows
RIGA, Latvia — Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’ centrist-conservative United List alliance appeared headed for a decisive victory in Latvia’s parliamentary election Saturday, according to an exit poll released after polls closed.
The survey, conducted jointly by Latvian public radio and the Leta news agency, projected United List at 35.6%, far ahead of any other contender and enough to make it the dominant force in the new 100-seat Saeima in Riga.
Kulbergs, 47, called the projected result a major vote of confidence from Latvians and said voters had signaled a desire for change, with the economy and security at the top of their concerns. He initially declined to comment on possible coalition combinations.
The populist nationalist Latvia First party was projected to finish second with 11.3%, narrowly ahead of the left-wing Progressives at 11.1% and the right-wing populist Sovereign Power party at 10.8%. Sovereign Power was believed to have performed especially strongly among Latvia’s sizable ethnic Russian minority.
Two of United List’s three current coalition partners were also expected to clear the threshold for parliament: the conservative National Alliance with 8.7% and the liberal-conservative New Unity with 6.7%. In all, six parties were projected to enter the Saeima.
The projections suggest Kulbergs’ alliance will emerge significantly strengthened from the vote, though it would still fall short of an outright majority and need coalition partners to govern. About 6,500 voters were surveyed for the exit poll.
Parties initially reacted cautiously to the projections, mindful that exit polls have proved unreliable in previous Latvian elections. The first official results were expected overnight into Sunday.
More than 1.5 million people were eligible to vote in the Baltic country, an EU and NATO member that borders Russia and Belarus. Fourteen parties and alliances contested the 100 seats in Latvia’s 11th parliamentary election since it regained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. Initial figures from the electoral commission put turnout above 50%.
The campaign was dominated by Russia’s war against Ukraine and its implications for Latvian national security, as well as rising living costs and other social policy challenges. Latvia, a country of 1.9 million people and one of Ukraine’s closest supporters, spends heavily on defense and security, leaving less money available elsewhere.
Kulbergs has led a four-party center-right coalition since taking office in May, following the collapse of the previous government amid a dispute over the response to drone incidents. Two misdirected Ukrainian drones had crashed near the Russian border, also causing tensions with Moscow.
Concerned about aerial threats during the election, Latvia asked its NATO allies for support. Germany deployed four Eurofighter jets to help protect Latvian airspace.
Beyond security, Latvia’s health system is under strain, while emigration, an aging population, high prices, low wages and a sluggish economy remain major concerns.
A view of the main building of the Latvian parliament (Saeima). Alexander Welscher/dpa