Lean Inventories Signal Shift: Ocean Freight Softens as Trucking Braces for Surge

Robust consumer spending during the holiday season led to an aggressive drawdown of business inventories in December, leaving shippers with leaner stockpiles as they enter the new year. This shift towards a just-in-time inventory model is weakening demand for ocean container shipping from Asia to the U.S., but analysts warn it sets the stage for a significant tightening in the domestic trucking market, with tender rejections and spot rates poised to climb.

Data from the Commerce Department shows declines across both durable and nondurable goods inventories in December, indicating a deliberate pause in restocking and a focus on clearing existing stock. This trend aligns with a broader strategic move by importers to reduce inventory carrying costs amid ongoing economic uncertainty. The ripple effects are already visible: benchmark eastbound trans-Pacific container rates have softened, a decline analysts attribute primarily to weaker inland point intermodal (IPI) shipments as freight volumes shift toward domestic trucking networks.

"We're seeing a classic pivot," said one industry analyst who requested anonymity. "The ocean side is offering discounts and blanking sailings to manage capacity, but that's because the real pressure is moving inland. When inventories are this lean, the supply chain's tolerance for delay vanishes. Speed and reliability become the premium, and that's a truckload market story."

Ocean carriers, facing subdued demand, are reportedly increasing the number of canceled or delayed sailings to balance the market. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, noted in a client advisory that the typical pre-Lunar New Year rate slide began earlier than usual this year, suggesting carriers are struggling to secure volumes from retailers cautious due to trade policy fluctuations.

However, this ocean market softness is likely a prelude to trucking market strain. The National Retail Federation forecasts a 6% month-over-month increase in import volumes for January, the first such rise since July. While still below last year's levels, this uptick, combined with compressed replenishment cycles, will force shippers to seek faster, more reliable transportation options. This inherently favors truckload services over slower, albeit cheaper, intermodal rail for a growing portion of goods.

The push for reliability is also reshaping ocean alliances. The Gemini Alliance, formed by Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, has made on-time performance its cornerstone, reportedly achieving a 90% reliability rate in 2025. This focus on schedule integrity—and the introduction of premium charges for it—underscores a broader industry response to shippers' need for predictability, a demand that becomes even more acute when warehouse buffers are thin.

On the ground, trucking carriers should prepare for shorter lead times and higher expectations for on-time pickup and delivery. "Tender operations will increasingly favor carriers who can consistently meet tight, unforgiving windows," a logistics manager for a major retailer commented. "Capacity that can synchronize with these accelerated cycles will command a premium, especially on time-sensitive lanes."

This dynamic may temporarily sideline intermodal's cost advantages. "A demand surge could see importers sacrifice some cost savings for the speed and control of truckload services," the analysis notes, though a balanced approach might preserve intermodal's role for less time-sensitive, longer-haul freight.

The changing freight landscape is also evident in seasonality. Industry observer Larry Gross noted on LinkedIn that North American intermodal peak volumes have shifted decisively later in the year, now cresting in December rather than the traditional late-summer period—a change driven by the growing dominance of e-commerce fulfillment patterns.

Industry Voices: Reactions from the Front Lines

Michael Rodriguez, Logistics Director at a Midwestern Retail Chain: "This is the squeeze we anticipated. Our warehouses are running hot but empty. We're now in a position where we'll pay more for trucking to keep shelves stocked, but that cost will eventually hit the consumer. The ocean rate drop is a fleeting consolation prize."

Sarah Chen, Freight Procurement Analyst: "The data clearly shows a rebalancing act. Smart shippers will use this period of ocean softness to negotiate longer-term contracts, but must build in flexibility for the impending trucking crunch. Diversifying carrier networks is no longer optional; it's critical for resilience."

David "Bull" Masterson, Independent Owner-Operator: "Here we go again. The brokers and big shippers cry about rates being low one minute, then turn around and create the conditions for them to skyrocket. This 'inventory swing' nonsense just means more pressure on drivers, tighter schedules, and the same old game where we bear the risk. They want 'reliable capacity' but won't pay for it until their backs are against the wall."

Priya Sharma, Supply Chain Professor at Eastern University: "This is a textbook example of bullwhip effect mitigation leading to localized volatility. Companies are managing their inventories more leanly to avoid overstock, but that transfers volatility to the transportation sector. The innovation seen in alliances like Gemini is a direct response to this need for stability in one leg of the journey, even as another leg becomes more turbulent."

Reporting contributed by Stuart Chirls. Find more of his coverage here.